Ravens vs. Jaguars: 5 things to watch, including Nate Wiggins, Liam Coen and playoff odds

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On Tuesday, amid one of the most turbulent stretches in recent team history, defensive lineman Calais Campbell asked Ravens fans for grace.

“I think all of us wanted to be better than 4-4 at this point in time in the season,” he said. “But, at the same time, there is still a lot of football left to play. We win a couple games, and we’re still in it. Who knows what happens with guys coming back and all that stuff? I’m still holding out hope.”

The Ravens have little other recourse. Maybe Lamar Jackson, sidelined indefinitely by a thumb injury, can return to full health later this season. Maybe Jacoby Brissett, set to arrive soon in a trade from the Arizona Cardinals, can stabilize a quarterback room also missing Tyler Huntley until Jackson is ready. Maybe the defense can start to play as well in the second half as it does in the first.

But hope, Campbell knows, is fading fast in Baltimore. And a fourth straight loss — to the Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2) on “Thursday Night Football” — would prompt even louder reckonings about just what kind of team the Ravens ought to be ahead of Tuesday’s trade deadline. Sellers or buyers? Optimists or pessimists?

As quarterback Joe Fagnano prepares to make his first career start at M&T Bank Stadium, here’s what to watch in the teams’ Week 9 matchup. All stats are courtesy of Sports Info Solutions, Pro Football Focus, SumerSports and the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, unless otherwise noted.

1. With Jackson and Huntley potentially lost for the season, the Ravens needed to make a move at quarterback. History suggests Fagnano was unlikely to rescue them.

Since 2000, nine undrafted quarterbacks have started at least two games in their rookie season. Only one has finished with a winning record: Matt Moore, who went 2-1 for the 2007 Carolina Panthers.

(San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy, meanwhile, went 5-0 as a rookie. The last player taken in the 2022 NFL draft, he completed 67.1% of his passes that season for 1,374 yards, 13 touchdowns and four interceptions.)

Fagnano impressed in the preseason, but this was always supposed to be a developmental year. General manager Eric DeCosta is under heightened scrutiny to rebuild a supposed contender, and poor quarterback play would make it difficult for him to evaluate this offense and keep spirits up in the locker room. Brissett should raise the Ravens’ floor and ceiling immediately.

2. The Ravens will again be without their offensive engine. But Jacksonville’s defense will be missing a hugely important cog as well.

Jaguars defensive lineman DaVon Hamilton’s season-ending quadriceps injury could have a transformative effect on an elite unit. With the 335-pound Hamilton on the field this season, the Jaguars have allowed just 3.1 yards per carry against designed runs, better than their league-best average overall (3.4 yards). With him off the field, the Jaguars have allowed 3.8 yards per designed carry with a significantly worse success rate.

Hamilton’s on-off splits are even more stark against the pass, despite his limited impact as a pass rusher. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 67.9% of their passes for 8.8 yards per attempt with him on the field, up from 63.8% and 5.3 yards with him off the field. Opponents also have completed a throw of at least 20 yards on 11.7% of the Jaguars’ Hamilton-less pass snaps, which would be the second-worst explosive-play rate overall among NFL defenses.

“There’s not many better humans, better competitors, team guys,” Jacksonville coach Liam Coen said of Hamilton after Sunday’s game.

The Jaguars will also be without starting safety Eric Murray, who suffered a season-ending injury Sunday as well. Starting defensive end Travon Walker (ribs) is questionable.

3. An illness that sidelined Ravens cornerback Nate Wiggins at Wednesday’s walk-through could spoil one of the most intriguing storylines of Thursday’s game.

Wiggins, who’s considered questionable, was linked to Jacksonville throughout the predraft process in 2024. When the Jaguars were on the clock with the No. 23 overall pick, Wiggins and his agent felt almost certain he would be the pick.

Instead, the Jaguars took LSU wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. The snub shook Wiggins, family members told The Banner.

Thomas was a rookie sensation in Jacksonville, finishing with 1,282 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. But his production has waned since, and he enters Week 9 as a potential trade target. In seven games, Thomas has just 10 catches on 22 targets for 117 yards and two touchdowns.

Wiggins, who fell to the Ravens at No. 30 overall, has struggled to live up the promise he showed late in his rookie year, too, though his decline hasn’t been as pronounced. He’s allowed 22 catches on 34 targets for 240 yards and two touchdowns this season and doesn’t have an interception.

On Thursday, if healthy, Wiggins should see a lot of Jaguars wide receivers Parker Washington and Jakobi Meyers out wide. But he could also match up with Thomas for the first time in his career.

4. Coen is 2-0 against Ravens coach Jesse Minter over the past two years, with wildly different results in both games.

In 2024, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with Coen calling plays, torched Minter’s Los Angeles Chargers defense for a season-worst 506 yards (7.6 per play) in a 40-17 win in Week 15. Quarterback Baker Mayfield passed for 288 yards and four touchdowns, and Tampa Bay rolled up 223 rushing yards (5.7 per carry).

Last season, Coen’s first as Jacksonville’s coach, the Jaguars beat the Chargers even more soundly in Week 11, 35-6. But Minter’s defense held Jacksonville to just 345 yards (5.0 per play). Quarterback Trevor Lawrence went 14-for-22 for 153 yards, a touchdown and an interception. Most of the Jaguars’ damage came on the ground (192 rushing yards).

This season, Coen, one of the NFL’s best offensive architects, has his most impressive attack yet. Jacksonville is fourth in overall efficiency, according to FTN, ranking fourth in passing offense and sixth in rushing offense. Lawrence and his receivers will look to attack the Ravens with in-breakers, which their pass defense has struggled to defend all season.

5. The Ravens’ playoff hopes are on life support. According to The New York Times’ latest projections, their odds have dropped to 12%. On ESPN, they’re just 6.4%.

For the Ravens to make another late-season charge, they’ll need to start winning, fast. But they’ll also need a tightly packed group of AFC contenders to shed at least one from the pack. Seven teams — the Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh Steelers, Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs and Jaguars — have at least 79% odds of making the conference’s seven-team playoff field, according to the Times. No other team is above 42%.

If the Ravens can win three of their next four games — home against the Jaguars and Chargers (0-7), on the road against the Panthers (3-4) and Houston Texans (3-5) — they’d enter their Week 13 bye with at least 33% playoff odds, according to the Times. And Jackson, if healthy enough to return, could supercharge their finishing kick.