The blue wave that swept across the country last week could reach northern Baltimore County, where council member Nino Mangione is at risk of losing a seat Republicans have held for more than a generation.

Democrat Shawn McIntosh pulled ahead of Mangione by just over 300 votes Sunday evening as election workers continued to canvass tens of thousands of mail-in ballots. The candidates are vying to represent District 5, a sprawling swath of northern Baltimore County that stretches from Lutherville-Timonium and Cockeysville to the Pennsylvania border.

The election gained national and even international media coverage because Mangione’s cousin Luigi Mangione pleaded guilty to federal crimes in the December 2024 killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson outside the New York Hilton Midtown in Manhattan. Outlets such as TMZ, Fox News and Newsweek prematurely declared Nino Mangione the winner after he led on Election Day.

McIntosh has steadily narrowed the gap in the days since, winning 65% of mail-in ballots counted as of Monday morning. Her lead is expected to grow as election workers tally the remaining 4,400 mail ballots from the district, campaign manager Ian Miller said.

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Democrats outnumber Republicans 2-to-1 in Maryland but account for four times as many mail-in ballot deliveries in this election.

A political newcomer making her first bid for elected office, McIntosh said she “burst into tears” when Sunday’s results showed her leading the race.

“I am very pleased with the direction the votes seem to be heading,” McIntosh said Monday in a text message. “With thousands of votes left, I believe it’s important to respect the process and wait until every vote has been counted and the results are certified before declaring victory.”

Democratic council member candidate Shawn McIntosh waves to passing cars while campaigning in Lutherville-Timonium in October. (Jessica Gallagher/The Banner)

Election workers resumed counting mail ballots Monday morning. The results are expected to be certified Friday.

In a year of sweeping political changes across Baltimore County, Mangione’s potential defeat would rank as the biggest surprise. The last Democrat to win a council race in the northern part of the county was Dutch Ruppersberger in 1990, before he went on to become county executive and serve 11 terms in the U.S. Congress.

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The county redrew its maps ahead of this year’s elections, as the council expanded from seven to nine seats, and northern Baltimore County was placed in the most politically competitive district. Democrats narrowly outnumber Republicans in the new District 5, and independents make up about 1 in 4 registered voters.

Mangione, a MAGA Republican from a well-known family of developers, entered the race with several advantages. He was appointed to the council in May to replace retiring council member Wade Kach, granting him incumbency months before the general election.

Mangione also raised nearly five times as much money as McIntosh, receiving large donations from several family members and businesses. McIntosh, meanwhile, ran a publicly financed campaign, which required her to limit campaign contributions to $250 and forgo donations from businesses, political action committees and unions.

Two other council races remained undecided as of Monday, as mail ballots continued to narrow Republican leads.

In District 8, which includes Essex, Middle River and White Marsh, Republican Josh Sines maintained a nearly 2,000-vote advantage over Democrat Sharonda Dillard-Huffman.

In District 9, which spans Dundalk, Edgemere and part of Rosedale, Republican Tim Fazenbaker led Democrat Arkia Wade by around 600 votes.