Why we might not know every election outcome tonight

It’s easier to vote in Maryland than in many other states: It’s one of 17 to allow same-day registration through Election Day, one of 29 where voters don’t need a reason to vote by mail and among 47 to include early voting as an option.

While the array of voting options is great for voters, it’s not ideal for knowing the outcome of every race — particularly close ones — on election night. Mail-in ballots will keep being counted until Nov. 13, and local election officials who need more time to tally can continue counting until vote certification on Dec. 3.

Mail-in voting

Ballots postmarked by Nov. 3 and delivered by Nov. 13 will be counted. Ballots can also be placed in drop boxes around the state before 8 p.m. on Election Day.

More than 656,000 mail-in ballots had been sent to voters for the 2026 general election as of Oct. 29. Around 59% have been returned so far.

The last midterm election conducted with similar vote-by-mail rules was in 2022. By Election Day that year, 639,500 ballots had been sent out. Voters returned about 85% of them.

Maryland ranked 17th in the country in the share of votes cast by mail in the 2022 general election, a Banner analysis of federal election data found.

Democrats outnumber Republicans 2-to-1 in Maryland but account for four times as many mail-in ballot deliveries in this election.

Voting by mail remains popular even though President Donald Trump’s administration tried to impose restrictions — a move the U.S. Supreme Court rejected in September.

How mail-in ballots get counted

Maryland allows electoral officials to begin canvassing and counting mail-in ballots before Election Day. Canvassing means that local officials verify that ballots have been properly signed and postmarked, and if they are, they can then be counted. Canvassers work in pairs — one member from each major political party — to review ballots.

The public is welcome to observe proceedings. Local boards of elections post calendars of canvass events on their websites.

By state law, all local election boards meet eight days before the start of early voting to begin canvassing. That first meeting was Oct. 13 this year. Local boards continued to meet and canvass votes until Election Day.

Around 174,000 ballots have been deemed valid so far. That means a lot of counting remains.

Vote totals from mail-ins are not released until polls close on Election Day. Some mail-ins will be included in the first batch of results that day.

No votes are canvassed on Election Day. Canvassing and counting resumes at 10 a.m. on Nov. 5 and can continue until at least Nov. 13. When canvassers meet to process provisional ballots on the second Wednesday following the election — Nov. 11, in this case — they will also count mail-in ballots.

The process for counting mail ballots can make calling close races on election night impossible.

In 2022, for example, the Democratic primary for the Montgomery County executive race came down to mail ballots. Challenger David Blair had a 1,200-vote lead over incumbent Marc Elrich on election night. But that was steadily eroded by mail-ballot results in the days that followed. Elrich ultimately held his seat and defeated Blair by 32 votes in a race that was settled more than five weeks after Election Day.

Maryland does not have an automatic vote recount process, but in close elections — where the top two candidates are separated by less than 5% of the votes cast for them — the loser can petition for a recount. In the case of a ballot question, any Maryland voter can ask for a recount if the result is that close.

Early voting

Early voting so far has outpaced the 2022 general election, but not the 2018 one.

About 14% of eligible, active voters have already cast their ballots in person and early in this election, according to data from the State Board of Elections, totaling 604,396 votes as of the close of the early voting period on Oct. 29.

Early in-person voting may never recover to prepandemic levels, as Marylanders now have more options with expanded mail-ballot access. In 2018, around 661,000 voters had cast a ballot early, while nearly 382,000 had in 2022.

Unlike mail-in voting, early voting is not starkly partisan. Democrats are about as likely as Republicans to vote early in Maryland, data shows.

The results of votes cast early will only be released after polls close on Election Day.

Election Day turnout

There were 4,293,322 active voters in Maryland as of Oct. 29. Maryland allows same-day registration and voting on Election Day, so the numbers will likely increase by a few thousand voters by the time polls close Tuesday night.

Even though mail ballots and early voting have beaten 2022 records, it remains to be seen whether turnout will surpass 2018’s 59.1%, a high-water mark in turnout for a midterm election in the Trump era.

Nationally, Democrats are looking to repeat or even intensify the blue wave that wrested control of the U.S. House from the GOP in 2018. Election analysts believe that control of both the U.S. House and Senate is in play in this election, with crucial Senate races in Iowa, Texas, Michigan and Alaska, among others.

While stumping for Republican candidates, Trump has urged voters to “pretend I’m on the ballot.” His approval ratings have hit a “new low” among likely voters, only 36% of whom approved of his performance, according to a New York Times/Siena poll from two weeks ago.