Jon Meoli: The factors likely informing the Orioles’ trade deadline decision-making

Nothing is simple about these Orioles — see Wednesday’s delightfully dumb win in Detroit as the latest evidence. If it were, we’d be able to look at just their record and playoff standings and have a good idea of what should happen in the days before the Aug. 3 trade deadline.

President of baseball operations Mike Elias, based on the four months of evidence we have, would be justified moving in any number of directions. All involved will be relieved at the finality that comes around 6 p.m. Monday. Apologies if I’m over-indexing my own feelings there.

This deadline has all kinds of subtext about Elias’ future with this organization, and I doubt any of that has come up in the countless meetings over the last month.

So I tried to put myself in those rooms and Zooms and identify the factors that might hold more influence over Elias’ decision-making than we think.

Can the Orioles help themselves first?

I imagine this isn’t just a deadline conversation, but before things turned around Wednesday, I thought a lot more about who wasn’t playing than who was. I completely understand why the Orioles platoon as much as they do. Everyone needs to play at some point, and if right-handed hitters don’t start against lefties, they probably won’t play at all.

But Jackson Holliday has handled lefties well this year and, with a .986 OPS since the break, should be in the lineup every day. Colton Cowser is faring worse off lefties than Leody Taveras, but it’s easily argued that his value in center field makes up for that gulf. On a day-to-day basis, the Orioles are dynamic in their lineups based on the other team’s starter. But they’ve been far too static in a lot of ways.

Blaze Alexander was one of the best hitters in baseball from the start of May on and was in his third game of the season batting outside the bottom three on July 12 when he fractured his hand. Gunnar Henderson is 167th out of 199 players with 200 plate appearances since May 1 with an 84 wRC+ and has been in the top third of the lineup the whole time. Manager Craig Albernaz has all the reasons in the world to leave him there, and that faith will probably be rewarded.

It’s just clear that the Orioles need some kind of jolt in their lineup if they don’t fold their hand this weekend and sell. They have a lot of decisions to make about how to coax it from the players already on the roster. Adding another bat could make those lineup decisions even more complicated.

Health probably plays a larger role than we think

It was notable last week when Orioles control person David Rubenstein cited injuries as a cause of the team’s underperformance, but it probably has more of an influence on the next two months than anyone is figuring right now.

The Orioles were 4-5 these last nine games without both Adley Rutschman and Samuel Basallo, and their catchers were a collective 2-for-35. The margins in the three extra-inning games were so fine that it’s hard to imagine having either of their best hitters in Rutschman or Basallo available not making a difference.

If those two are going to be out much longer, it might not matter what the standings look like this weekend. Same goes for how long Alexander and Ryan Helsley will be out. We aren’t talking about a juggernaut to begin with. But only the Orioles really know when they can expect those players back, and if they’re going to be too compromised without them for too long, the decision might be made for them.

They are going to have to trade prospects at some point

It wasn’t much at the time, but when the Orioles acquired left-hander Cole Irvin from the Athletics before the 2023 season for infielder Darell Hernaiz, they were teasing a roster management strategy that would endure for years — and is still relevant now.

Hernaiz, a fifth-round pick in 2019, had broken out on the farm in 2022 but was a year away from being eligible for the Rule 5 draft, meaning the club that fall would have to add him to the 40-man roster or risk losing him for nothing.

So they got ahead of it and moved him for present-day help. They did similarly at the 2024 deadline with right-hander Moisés Chace, who was set to be Rule 5 eligible, in the Gregory Soto trade and, to a lesser extent, reliever Trey McGough in the Eloy Jiménez trade. They already pared what’s expected to be a hefty Rule 5-eligible list for this fall with offseason trades that sent Michael Forret (among others) to Tampa Bay for Shane Baz and Wellington Aracena to Arizona as part of the Alexander trade.

They added Trey Gibson and Cameron Weston to the roster during the season, and that leaves a hefty list of eligible players in the high minors still, including Luis De León, Enrique Bradfield Jr., Aron Estrada, Nestor German, Levi Wells, Creed Willems, Juaron Watts-Brown, Patrick Reilly and Yeiber Cartaya.

I think the first five on that list would be most at risk of being taken if left unprotected, and regardless of where the Orioles sit in the playoff picture, those who they don’t envision having space for on the roster might as well be traded now to derive some value for them while there’s a chance.

What’s the drop-off if they sell?

Wednesday notwithstanding, I think you can say the 10 or so turns through the rotation without Trevor Rogers would be worse than what the Orioles would get from the free-agent-to-be if he stuck around Baltimore. The drop-off elsewhere varies.

Taylor Ward is somehow on pace for a three-win season with similar overall offensive production (measured by wRC+) as his previous two seasons with hardly any power. With Tyler O’Neill coming around and potential returns for Alexander and Ryan Mountcastle, maybe the Orioles capitalize on the paucity of right-handed-hitting outfielders in the league and deal Ward.

Elsewhere in the outfield, maybe Taveras has value, with his playing time going to Cowser and Dylan Beavers.

Contenders always need relievers, and while the Orioles don’t have any notable relief depth waiting in the wings, they’ve found good relievers out of nowhere before.