Orioles’ trade deadline approach remains to be seen, but a mix of buying and selling is plausible

The Orioles are not playing like a contender must ahead of the trade deadline and, even with a win Thursday, they are at the bottom of the American League East. The lackluster wild-card field gives only so much grace for the hopes of this underachiever.

Multiple sources around Major League Baseball said it appears unlikely for the Orioles (43-51) to be true buyers ahead of the Aug. 3 trade deadline, although that’s not set in stone. One source with direct knowledge of the front office’s thinking said the Orioles’ approach is to be determined, perhaps as soon as next week, when the MLB draft is over.

Still, as Baltimore stands, an all-out aggressive buying approach seems implausible. What is likelier, industry sources predict, is that the Orioles strike a balance between buying and selling — seeking players under team control beyond this year while selling select players on expiring contracts.

That approach would both acknowledge a postseason berth this season is out of the realm of possibility and that the Orioles aren’t entering another rebuild. By attempting to acquire controllable talent — and by using pending free agents to help those efforts — Baltimore could position itself to compete in 2027.

A full sell-off — the type that would include catcher Adley Rutschman, who remains under control next season — would potentially signal that this competitive window is shut. That remains to be seen, and president of baseball operations Mike Elias admits to feeling the pressure that comes with consecutive losing seasons.

But Elias also said his own job pressures won’t impact how he approaches the deadline, meaning he won’t go all in on buying if that’s not what he thinks is best for the organization in the long run.

It stands to reason, then, that Baltimore would look to have one foot in both courts as a buyer and a seller. The Orioles have done it before. In 2024, Baltimore traded longtime outfielder Austin Hays but added right-hander Zach Eflin and left-hander Trevor Rogers. Hays was a pending free agent. Rogers and Eflin were under team control past that season.

In hindsight, that deadline approach in 2024 didn’t yield postseason results. But, for a team that is outside the playoff picture in 2026, it could prove wise.

The potential on-sale players

Any player who is in the final year of team control likely would be available for the right price, should Baltimore commit to selling. Even if the Orioles approach the deadline with a buy-and-sell approach, there are a few players who would likely draw interest from contenders.

The main ones are outfielder Taylor Ward and Rogers, the left-handed starter.

Because relievers are always valuable, Baltimore could flip right-hander Andrew Kittredge. And, while right-handers Yennier Cano and Rico Garcia have additional years of team control, teams may deem them midlevel arms worth trading for.

Ward, whom Baltimore acquired from the Los Angeles Angels for right-hander Grayson Rodriguez, hasn’t found the same power stroke that made him a 36-homer hitter in 2025. He has five this year, and while he’s reaching base at a .383 clip, his on-base-plus-slugging percentage is down to .735.

Ward’s OPS ranks 12th in the majors among qualified right-handed-hitting outfielders. Although his defense leaves much to be desired, only Mike Trout gets on base at a higher rate (.394 OBP). There is room for improvement with Ward’s power. All of his homers have come on the road. If he is traded to a team with a more hitter-friendly ballpark than Camden Yards with its deep left-field wall, his power numbers could benefit.

ESPN listed the Seattle Mariners as a potential fit for Ward. There may be multiple teams who think Ward’s power will return and see his on-base percentage as a plus.

The way Rogers is pitching lately could increase what surely is already high interest in a left-handed starter. There is never a surplus of pitching. Some teams, such as the Chicago White Sox and Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers and Atlanta Braves, could use a floor-raising starter — or, in the case of Atlanta, a healthy arm.

The reality, of course, is that just about every team needs pitching help, and Rogers’ performances can’t be ignored. With another six innings of one-run ball against the Cubs on Thursday, he has allowed four runs over his last five starts. He hasn’t conceded more than three runs in an outing since June.

Multiple times over the last year, Rogers has reiterated his desire to remain in Baltimore after this season. But an extension hasn’t come. If the Orioles don’t feel they can strike a deal with Rogers — or if they aren’t interested in one — trading him is the next option.

The trio of Kittredge, Cano and Garcia is intriguing. The Orioles traded Kittredge last year at the deadline, then re-acquired him from the Cubs for cash considerations. Could another midseason swap be upcoming?

Cano has put his challenging 2025 (5.12 ERA) behind him and looks more like the 2023 All-Star version of himself. He holds a 2.48 ERA and a 1.069 WHIP, and even if he has pitched in fewer high-leverage situations, he could raise the floor of a bullpen elsewhere.

Garcia is producing a career year, although his results lately have been shakier. Garcia has a 2.75 ERA, but since June it is 6.43 in 14 innings. Perhaps the Orioles can still look to sell high on a breakout pitcher.

From year to year, there is nothing so volatile as a bullpen. Parting ways with players under team control, such as Garcia and Cano, might seem to be moves that hurt the 2027 roster. But there is no guaranteeing future performance and a bullpen can be built during the winter.

And, with a never-ending need to strengthen a bullpen, the deadline often brings about seller-friendly deals.

The potential target profiles

Over the next few weeks, members of the Orioles front office will be glued to their phones. Teams across the league will be deciding their strategies. A well-timed losing streak can force a club into selling; a few wins could lead to buying.

This year, industry sources predict, the cluster of teams within reach of the third-wild card spot may create a late-forming market, with most deals occurring closer to the deadline. That would allow front offices the maximum amount of time to analyze their clubs — and their rivals — before deciding.

Assuming the Orioles do not become full-out buyers and opt instead for a buy-and-sell combination, the target profile for the club will be players under team control. That will cost prospects, as well as current major leaguers. But, if the Orioles deem that retooling for 2027 is the best option, prospect hoarding won’t get it done.

After all, one talent evaluator from an opposing club said, the Orioles kept their top prospects off limits in 2023 and 2024, which likely lessened the impact of Baltimore’s trade deadline acquisitions.

Does that mean the Orioles should trade left-hander Joseph Dzierwa, who appears to be their best pitching prospect in the Elias era? Not exactly. But if they commit to taking a big swing — the kind that would be required to make a run at the postseason this year — that upper tier of prospects is likely what it will take.

Thinking from the perspective of 2027, however, opens the door to unique packages that might include a bat (say, Ward) and a high-level prospect for a starting pitcher under team control (say, Mariners right-hander Luis Castillo). Seattle has pitching depth, both in the majors and the upper levels of the minors, but it could use another influential piece in its lineup.

Castillo, who is set to earn about $24 million in 2027 with a vesting option of $25 million for 2028 if he reaches an innings threshold, has the highest ERA of his career through 17 games this season (4.79). But his fielding-independent pitching is 3.83, indicating bad luck is involved in his elevated ERA. He still can be an impactful rotation piece.

The Mariners, in first place in the American League West, may have no interest in trading Castillo. That is just an example of how the Orioles could use some of their expiring major league contracts, mixed with prospects, to land major league-ready talent.

What may be required, however, is using the farm system in a similar way as the Orioles did to land right-hander Shane Baz. In that offseason deal, Baltimore sent four prospects and a competitive balance draft pick to the Tampa Bay Rays. It was a large package, but starting pitching is expensive.

Looking at sellers, one potential option is right-hander Logan Webb of the San Francisco Giants. He is signed through 2028, but the Giants could be swayed to deal him as they grapple with a dismal season. Webb, 29, has a 3.86 ERA. He has been a workhorse, with more than 200 innings thrown each of the last three seasons.

The St. Louis Cardinals may be destined to be sellers, too, and outfielder Lars Nootbaar is an intriguing name. Nootbaar can elevate Baltimore’s subpar outfield defense. He won’t be much help against left-handers, however. The left-handed hitter is batting .190 with a .583 OPS against southpaws.

None of this will be easy. But as the trade deadline approaches and the Orioles remain an unlikely team to make the postseason, retooling — not rebuilding — could be the path.