Jon Meoli: The Orioles are finally hitting, and that means they’re still worth our attention

As the Orioles departed for the first of two massive August road trips earlier this month, they left me with the impression that as much as they wanted to convey that their season wasn’t over, those sentiments rang hollow.

Either they didn’t believe it and knew they had to say it anyway, or they couldn’t square that reality with the fact that Adley Rutschman, Taylor Ward, Tyler Wells and Dean Kremer would have strengthened their chances of pushing through a crowded AL playoff race.

There was a world where this team folded on this trip to the point that they weren’t even worth our attention. It certainly looked like that might be the case a week ago. But in Tampa Bay they played like they actually believed they could make a run, and while that sentiment might never be matched outside the clubhouse, they’re certainly still worth our attention as they return home to play the Yankees and Rays.

That’s mostly because they’re finally hitting. Trading Ward, who was a staple in the top third of the lineup, seems to have unbound manager Craig Albernaz’s thinking about who hits where. Now we’re seeing Jackson Holliday bat higher in the order, Gunnar Henderson occasionally move down (to great effect), and a good kind of recency bias in that the hottest hitters are getting more chances to hit.

Since they broke out for 10 runs on Aug. 9 in Texas, the Orioles haven’t scored fewer than four runs in a game, totaling 51 runs in their last eight (6.3 per game), with a team on-base-plus-slugging percentage of .872. Pete Alonso has been a star in that span, but he’s not alone. Eight Orioles hitters have a wRC+ of at least 100, and the next-best on that list, Holliday, has come up with multiple big hits.

The Orioles’ best stretches this season have coincided with the offense producing the way it was expected to entering the season. You’ll remember that the last time the Orioles returned from a series at Tropicana Field — one in which the Rays swept them handily and Baltimore’s season felt like it was on the brink of disaster — they went on to win 10 of 14 in a span when they scored 86 runs (6.1 per game) with a collective OPS of .791; their season-long marks are 4.6 runs per game and a .720 OPS.

When the Orioles won 10 of 13 spanning the All-Star break to begin July, the offense was a little more muted, with 4.7 runs per game and a .741 OPS, but considering they only allowed more than three runs three times in that span, it was plenty to win.

The problem is those stretches don’t last. The Orioles hit for a while and then get inconsistent again. A fallow weekend against the Phillies at the start of this month was cited by president of baseball operations Mike Elias as part of the reason the deadline went the way it did.

That’s partially because it’s hard to know, even now, what this offense hangs its hat on. Their 10.2% walk rate is tops in the American League, though that figure may take a hit going forward without Ward and Rutschman. They also hit the ball hard, with their collective 42.9% hard-hit rate the best in the league. That’s supposed to be a recipe for damage, and I suppose there’s a world where it would be producing it; their expected slugging percentage as a team is .415, 16 points higher than their actual one (.399).

It’s a little late in the season to chalk anything up to luck, though it feels like that’s starting to turn. In this little eight-game heater they’re on, the actual slugging percentage (.515) and the expected one (.493) are inverted, which feels overdue.

The faces have changed plenty over the last two years, but the Orioles have continued to believe in the same approach: If they keep hitting the ball hard and taking good at-bats, good things will happen. It’s easy to hand-wave away at this point. But other facets of this offense that have seemed like enduring flaws are gone, too. No one really talks about it.

Take, for instance, their struggles against left-handed pitching. They’re still underperforming a bit against lefty starters, but as a team they have a higher OPS against lefties (.723) than righties (.719). They’ve also been derided for poor situational hitting but have a .772 OPS with runners in scoring position, seventh-best in baseball. Their .252 average in such spots may be unsatisfying, but an 11.8% walk rate in those situations means their on-base percentage is .344, 10th-best in baseball.

It’s not great, but it’s not as bad as it sometimes seems. The question with all these parts of the game is consistency, and that’s what will hang over this team in the remaining five weeks of the season.

Alonso’s not going to hit like this forever, but he has a .912 OPS since the beginning of May. He can be counted on going forward. The question becomes who joins him. Tyler O’Neill and Coby Mayo have been destroying left-handed pitching, and Colton Cowser has done so to righties. Holliday has been the best version of himself since the All-Star break. Some of that will need to continue, and Samuel Basallo and Blaze Alexander will have to come back strong once they’re healthy.

It’s all possible, and any of that would mean the Orioles can score enough to overcome the occasional night when their starters aren’t at their best or the more frequent games when they give opponents extra outs and are punished for it.

The problem is this has all been the case for the last four-plus months, and they’re still where they are — perpetually somewhere between two and five games under .500. But because of all the subpar teams fighting with them for the last playoff spot in the AL, they’re not entirely out of it.

It’s hard to believe anything is going to change, even if the Orioles do. Now that they’re hitting again, they return home this week still worth watching. There are certainly worse outcomes.