Jon Meoli: Adley Rutschman is too important to the Orioles for them to be ‘open-minded’ about his future

Arriving at the last weekend before Monday’s trade deadline in what he described as “a kind of inordinately, on-a-razor-wire situation,” Orioles president of baseball operations Mike Elias set the stage for opportunistic dealing in both directions in which he’ll try to add to the major league team in ways that make sense and listen to offers on players nearing free agency whom other clubs covet.

And that, we know now, includes Adley Rutschman, the foundational piece of their rebuild who is set to be a free agent after next season. Perhaps chastened by the clubhouse reaction to him burying the 2022 club’s playoff chances, Elias continually said these 54-56 Orioles have a “good shot” at making the playoffs but was more direct in his assessment that all those potential wins they’ve turned into losses mean they couldn’t be precious in holding on to pending free agents.

It’s hard to argue any of that. But keeping the door open for trading the in-demand Rutschman is even more unsatisfying than the season that brought us to this point.

A month ago, Elias addressed the speculation about Rutschman’s future by saying moving him hadn’t crossed the desk or hit the front office’s agenda, noting his “enormous” role on their team and his wish that their “commitment was greater than it is” to Rutschman’s future.

“We want him here forever,” Elias said. Those comments were echoed to an extent Friday — with a caveat.

“We love him,” Elias said. “You feel it when he’s gone from the team. Yeah, absolutely love Adley, and having him as long as we can. But, as I mentioned, I think we put ourselves in a position where we’ve got to be pretty open-minded here as we go into these talks. But Adley is one of the best things that we have going for us.”

Rutschman, on the injured list with wrist inflammation, returned to the All-Star Game after a scorching April and has a .767 OPS. He’s made adjustments to get back to his best behind the plate, too, and the only downside of his season is this is his third injured list stint. The first was for ankle inflammation, and later he was hit in the head with a throw while running the bases.

If that sounds like a player worth keeping, that’s because he is. Even with rookie Samuel Basallo — also injured at the moment — capable of catching every day as he grows into his role in the big leagues, whatever “good shot” the Orioles have the rest of this year and next at being a playoff team includes both of them.

Deep down, I imagine Elias knows that. Had that been how this season played out to this point, this wouldn’t even be a conversation. There would be nothing to be open-minded about. Rutschman would be returning to the lineup this month to bolster the team’s playoff push.

We know what has happened instead. As Rutschman returned to form this year, a combination of his contract status, Basallo’s presence and the Orioles’ underperformance put their star catcher into the ideal trade target range as the deadline approached.

It started, as most things like this do, with reports of the Yankees’ interest. Around the time Elias said he wanted him here forever, Rutschman was showing up more and more frequently in deadline speculation — and that’s often all it was, speculation.

But since the All-Star break something seems to have shifted. He wasn’t on ESPN’s trade candidate list but was a recent addition. There have been reports the Orioles are talking about Rutschman with other clubs. And now this.

It’s probably nothing more than a calculation that saying Rutschman was off the table in trade talks would be unnecessarily limiting, even if there’s a low chance he’s moved. But make no mistake — even allowing for that probability, there’s something to this.

Perhaps Elias has to be open-minded publicly because, if he says he’s not and the Orioles discuss Rutschman with another club this weekend, that would inevitably be reported and he’d have to explain it.

Maybe it’s as simple as the teams who have called are starting the conversations at a compelling enough point that, even if the Orioles don’t want to move on from Rutschman, the supply-demand dynamics of deadline trading can bring the price to a level that’s worth considering.

But to that I ask a simple question: Is anything worth trading Rutschman? We’re talking about a three-time All-Star who, even as he nears free agency, is among the game’s best at his position. He’s a popular teammate and handles the pitching staff well.

As the first overall pick in 2019 who went on to be the game’s top prospect, his arrival in the majors in 2022 marked the team’s emergence from its rebuild and brought on this phase we find ourselves in now.

When Elias said Friday that the Orioles “should have a better record than this,” he was speaking about a team that hasn’t met its expectations. I still think the margins are too thin to meaningfully dilute this team’s roster, but Elias’ assessment that the team can’t “sink all of our attention and chips into 2026” is hard to argue.

That doesn’t have a lot to do with Rutschman. But it means that, instead of the Orioles being listed as buyers in all the content produced by the trade deadline-industrial complex and Elias answering questions about the team’s pursuits to add this weekend, it’s Rutschman — not Taylor Ward or Trevor Rogers — who is being listed as their most attractive trade piece.

That’s because he’s been really good and has shown to be that kind of player when healthy for years. That’s not the kind of player I’d be open-minded about moving, no matter when free agency is approaching.

It’s a shame this Orioles season has even introduced this possibility into the universe. A reality where Rutschman is moved would be even worse.