Montgomery County schools are losing students. Where are they going?

Montgomery County Public Schools’ declining enrollment has district leadership preparing to make difficult decisions about campus closures and new attendance boundaries.

But why is enrollment dropping? And where did those MCPS students go?

Data presented at recent capital budget meetings offered some new information on how MCPS’ enrollment fell below 152,000 this year — a drop of more than 4,000 students.

School leaders say the county’s declining birth rate is a primary driver.

The county recorded more than 13,000 live births in 2014. A decade later, that fell to less than 11,000. That means few kindergartners are coming in to replace graduating seniors.

“This really is a national trend,” said Andrea Swiatocha, the acting chief of district operations. “This is not unique to MCPS. Other school districts, both within the DMV and across the country, are experiencing this decline.”

Here’s what the numbers show.

International enrollment

Montgomery County’s long history of growth was tied to its large foreign-born population.

But the district has seen a sharp drop in the number of international students enrolling at its public schools.

This comes amid the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown.

Public schools must educate all children, regardless of a family’s immigration status.

During the 2019-2020 school year, MCPS welcomed 4,530 international students. By last school year, that number fell to roughly 2,150 — a more than 50% drop.

It’s hard to say how the numbers will bear out this year, because international students enroll throughout the course of the year.

But consider this past September as an indicator, when 193 international students enrolled in MCPS. That compares to the more than 1,100 international students who enrolled in September 2019. Five years later, in September 2024, more than 430 foreign students joined the district.

Homeschooling and private school

According to preliminary numbers, the district lost just under 2,100 students to private schools this year. At the same time, it gained nearly 1,700 children from private campuses.

Overall, the net loss to private schools was roughly 400 kids.

A similar trend played out in homeschooling.

Roughly 285 students withdrew for homeschooling, while about 200 kids entered the district from homeschooling.

School board president Grace Rivera-Oven called this enrollment and disenrollment typical for Montgomery County, where families have a wealth of private school options.

Kindergartner capture

It’s not just that fewer kids are being born in Montgomery County. The district is also enrolling a smaller share of children once they turn 5 and are ready to start kindergarten.

Consider 2014. That year, 13,214 babies were born in the county. Five years later, MCPS had a kindergarten cohort of 11,518 children. That gave the district a “capture rate” of roughly 87%.

Jump ahead to 2026. Preliminary enrollment numbers give MCPS a kindergarten class of 9,279 — a capture rate of 80.7%.