Check engine: Looming wartime shortage of motor oil could hit Maryland, analysts warn

Gas prices aren’t the only rising auto expense linked to the conflict in the Middle East. Next up: your car’s oil change.

A likely shortage of synthetic motor oil tied to the Iran war could drive up the cost of a conventional oil change by as much as 40% ahead of the summer road trip season, according to industry analysts.

Iran has restricted access to the Strait of Hormuz, where tanker ships move roughly 20% of the global oil supply on its way to markets around the world. But the waterway handles an even higher percentage — 44% — of the global supply of so-called Group III base oil, the raw material for those plastic jugs of synthetics that keep auto engines running properly.

Some Baltimore-area auto shops are already seeing higher prices from oil distributors, and a supply crunch could push them even higher or lead to empty shelves at auto parts stores.

With rising gas prices, higher repair and insurance costs, and higher prices on new and used vehicles, car ownership is growing more expensive than ever.

“It’s all bad news,” said Nate Chenenko, a principal at the global consulting firm Ducker Carlisle who analyzes service and parts logistics in the auto industry.

Not all crude oil is the same when it comes out of the ground. Variation in physical characteristics like density and sulfur content requires varying amounts of refining to create different products like traditional gasoline, diesel or jet fuel.

When it comes to the base material that ultimately becomes synthetic motor oil, the Persian Gulf states have primo stuff, Chenenko said. Companies have created whole logistical networks centering on that region that are getting choked off, he added.

“When the supply drops, two things happen: Either the price goes way up, or there’s a shortage,” or both, Chenenko said. “We’re about to see both.”

“Everything’s gone up,” said José Batista, a mechanic who first opened East Baltimore’s Daniel Auto Repair more than 20 years ago.

Batista has seen prices for everything from brake pads to transmission fluid steadily rise over the past two years, he said, with the cost of some products from his suppliers roughly doubling. He hasn’t seen any indicator of the motor oil supply running out, but prices have gone up considerably, he said.

Around the corner, Loui Georgalas of Eastwood Body Shop has seen the price of synthetic oils his shop uses go up about 10% over the past six months.

But what concerns Georgalas are other increases. Another oil-based product — paint — has skyrocketed in price, as have other finishing materials for collision bodywork. Insurance payouts haven’t kept pace with those increases, he said.

“Everything’s going up in price, and I don’t think our industry is getting reimbursed properly for that increase,” he said. “You always try to keep the price fair for consumers that come off the street, but there’s only so much you can do.”

Other costs associated with car ownership have been going up for years.

Auto loan debt has surged 37% since 2018, quickly pushing low-income households to their financial brink, according to The Century Foundation.

Auto insurance and repair costs were already rising as basic car parts like bumpers got a technology upgrade with sensors. More recently, President Donald Trump’s tariffs threw supply chains for a loop, further increasing consumer costs.

So what can drivers do?

Get your oil changed now, Chenenko said, even if a vehicle could go another couple hundred miles before it’s absolutely necessary.

If drivers wait too long — and the conflict in Iran continues — an oil change could be tougher to find as the summer heat arrives, he warned.