NFL draft primer: Whom the Ravens should pick — and how it could all go wrong

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The more things change in Owings Mills — new coach, new coordinators, new uniforms — the more they stay the same.

Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta will enter the NFL draft Thursday night with 11 picks, tied for the second most in the draft. (Only the rival Pittsburgh Steelers have more.) He will wait for the board to fall his way. He will tolerate short-term pain in the interest of long-term gain.

Or will he?

“I don’t want to be too predictable,” DeCosta said at the Ravens’ predraft news conference last week. “I think that’s something I’ve learned from [owner] Steve [Bisciotti]. ... You don’t want to be typecasted as looking for certain types of players or doing something every single draft or whatever that might be.”

The draft’s early rounds are expected to be unpredictable. The Ravens could add to the chaos themselves. Here’s what reporters Jonas Shaffer and Giana Han and columnist Kyle Goon expect from a pivotal weekend.

What’s the Ravens’ best-case scenario in the first round? And their worst-case scenario?

Shaffer: Over the first 13 picks, the Ravens will be hoping for surprise selections, especially at positions that aren’t immediate needs — cornerback (Jermod McCoy?), offensive tackle (Monroe Freeling?), quarterback (Ty Simpson?). The more teams stray from the “consensus,” the more likely it is the Ravens will have their pick of high-quality wide receivers, offensive linemen and pass rushers at No. 14 overall. And if the first round goes truly bananas, the Ravens could even trade back, acquire a Day 2 pick and still land someone they would’ve been comfortable taking at No. 14.

If the usual suspects go early in the first round, the Ravens can still land a high-impact player. He just might happen to play a non-premium position like tight end (Kenyon Sadiq) or guard (Vega Ioane).

Han: The best-case scenario is that the draft goes as predicted, and they’re able to stick to their spot and pick — ideally an offensive lineman. The worst-case scenario is that other teams start grabbing the players they rate highly, they stay hesitant and then end up with someone whose prospective value does not align with the 14th overall pick.

Goon: The best-case scenario is that the value of the Ravens’ top pick aligns with their needs. They have so many weaknesses on their roster that they could use the pick to take an offensive lineman, defensive lineman or pass-catcher.

If, let’s say, a cornerback drops to them, and he’s higher on their board, the Ravens are the kind of team that ignores need to get the best player available. But I don’t think the roster is good enough to ignore need this year, and the first few rounds have to be surgically precise. A run on receivers or linemen could really screw up their plans for the entire draft sequence.

How long can the Ravens wait to address their offensive line?

Shaffer: That depends on how much they trust Emery Jones Jr. and offensive line coach Dwayne Ledford. It’s possible the Ravens believe they already have four solid starters in tackles Ronnie Stanley and Roger Rosengarten and guards John Simpson and Jones. But Jones, a 2025 third-round pick who started at tackle at LSU, barely played as a rookie last season. And the Ravens’ offensive line woes stemmed in part from overconfidence in their personnel and in Lamar Jackson’s ability to overcome their deficiencies.

DeCosta can’t afford to make the same mistake this year. If the Ravens wait until the third round to take an interior lineman, their activity in the first two rounds had better be unimpeachable, or else the fan base’s trust in DeCosta will only erode further.

Han: They need to address it in the first two days, preferably in the first round. After the third round, they won’t get the kind of high-caliber players who can help with such an immense need. On top of that, they have multiple issues along the line. They need to replace Pro Bowl center Tyler Linderbaum as well as shore up the guard spots. And it wouldn’t hurt to supplement the depth at tackle, but that problem is way down on the Ravens’ list of needs. To get an immediate difference-maker, which they need to compete this year, they should use a first- or second-rounder.

Goon: Interior line is the Ravens’ biggest position of need, but I believe it is one that can wait until Day 2. The team fares pretty well in the second and third round with blockers, and while Vega Ioane may be the consensus best plug-and-play guard, the Ravens may find a solid answer with better overall value deeper in the mix.

On the offensive line, it’s not so much about the best possible talent. There’s probably no pick in this particular draft who can fully fill the shoes of Tyler Linderbaum, so it’s a pointless exercise trying to project who can do it all on his own. The best fit in the group is a different set of criteria that is achievable in the second or third round.

The Ravens have four top-115 picks. What would be the ideal positional sequencing?

Shaffer: So much of this depends on just how comfortable the Ravens feel about defensive lineman Nnamdi Madubuike’s return to form. Let’s say they’re optimistic. By going edge rusher, interior offensive lineman, wide receiver and tight end, the Ravens could find good value at key spots. But that’s a tough needle to thread. Is Rueben Bain Jr. really a realistic option at No. 14? Will guard Keylan Rutledge, a potential first-round sleeper who could also slide over to center, make it to No. 45?

Han: If you couldn’t guess based off my previous two answers, the first pick should be offensive line. The rest will depend on how the Ravens’ positional boards align with where they’re picking. But in a perfect world, I would go edge rusher, tight end and center after that. (I also changed this answer multiple times, swapping in wide receiver and cornerback.)

Goon: My ideal sequence? Receiver, guard, defensive tackle, tight end. All those positions are needs for the Ravens, and the sequence is a mix of how much the Ravens need that talent, and the best possible ceiling they can expect to get for the pick. I trust the Ravens more to pick a second-round starter at offensive line than I do at receiver, for example. The upside you might get with Jordyn Tyson or Omar Cooper Jr. could be higher than with Ioane, who has a higher floor but potentially a lower ceiling.

Who are your favorite Day 2 and Day 3 prospects for the Ravens?

Shaffer: As a redhead, I am obligated to stan for Rutledge, aka “Big Red,” who wore jeans to his wedding and whom Georgia Tech coach Brent Key called “the toughest player I have coached.” His run-blocking highlights are a delight.

If the Ravens want pass rush help in the third or fourth round, Michigan’s Jaishawn Barham could be an interesting developmental pick. The former Saint Frances and Maryland star has transitioned from off-ball linebacker to edge rusher, and he showed good bend and burst for stretches this season, along with a take-no-prisoners attitude against the run.

Han: I like Kansas State’s Sam Hecht and Florida’s Jake Slaughter, centers who are projected to go around the fourth round. They’re both a bit undersized but play with great technique and awareness. The Ravens found success with an undersized center in Linderbaum, and they could do so again. Also, Max Toscano convinced me during his appearance on the Banner Ravens Podcast to be a fan of Notre Dame tight end Eli Raridon, arguing that his tape shows great potential despite a lack of college production.

Goon: I like guys who are winners. Indiana’s Elijah Sarratt fits the bill, coming off a title run with the Hoosiers and some good games in the playoff. His lack of athleticism has dropped him some down draft boards, but his craftiness helped him excel as a receiver who started his career at James Madison and adapted against Division I powerhouses with future NFL talent in coverage. He can high-point catches, which the Ravens can use more help with as Mark Andrews gets into his 30s.

On defense, Texas Tech’s Romello Height might offer good value at the back end of the top 100. The edge rusher had 10 sacks last season for a defense that flattened a lot of its opponents. His athleticism is good for his stock, which falls somewhere in Round 3 or 4.

Make a bold prediction about the Ravens’ draft.

Shaffer: The Ravens will trade their first-round pick. Maybe they move up, determined to land a falling wide receiver and willing to part with a middle-round pick. Maybe they move back, happy with their many options at No. 14 overall and eager to grab another top-100 pick from a desperate team. Maybe they move into next year’s first round. DeCosta hinted last week that this Ravens draft could be unpredictable. What if that becomes apparent as early as Thursday night?

Han: The Ravens will use another high-ish pick on a punter. They have so many roster needs, and using draft capital on a punter might seem unwise. But the Ravens got a good look at the importance of punters last year. Jordan Stout, a 2022 fourth-round pick, flipped their field position in close games and helped the defense a lot when the offense was struggling. While the Ravens signed Luke Elzinga earlier this month, he doesn’t have any game experience in the NFL. They’ll need someone they can count on if they hit any snags under first-time play-caller Declan Doyle.

Goon: The Ravens will trade up for a prospect sometime in the first three rounds. Their pick placement in the middle of each round is in kind of an awkward spot for their needs, especially given what the teams in front of them need, too. I suspect that they’ll have to trade a little higher in a round for the receiver or defensive lineman they like at some point.

DeCosta famously makes it a point to brag about how he rarely moves up to draft a guy. But the Ravens have too many picks to roster every selection, and more picks won’t be as valuable as their ability to pick the right guy when he’s landing slightly above your draft slot. With the necessity of nailing middle-round picks, 2026 is the year when it is time for the Ravens to act out of character.