Ravens vs. Bills: 5 things to watch, including Zay Flowers, James Cook and the trade deadline

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The Ravens opened their 2025 season at the old Highmark Stadium. They left Orchard Park, New York, with a bad omen for the year to come: a 41-40 primetime loss to Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills, arguably the magnum opus in coach John Harbaugh’s canon of collapses.

The 4-3 Ravens cannot restart their season Sunday at the new Highmark Stadium. But they could reframe it.

“I feel like it’s kind of one of those points in the season where you make a decision of the type of team you want to be,” coach Jesse Minter said Monday. “Feel like we have a 10-game season that we’re in a good spot. We’re not in a great spot. We’re in an OK spot with our record being what it is, to still have a lot of control over what happens to us in the next 10 games.”

After consecutive losses to the Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals, and with a road game against the AFC’s Super Bowl favorites up next, the Ravens’ backs are “against the wall,” inside linebacker Teddye Buchanan said Wednesday. What better time, then, for one of the NFL’s best escape artists to return to the field?

As quarterback Lamar Jackson prepares for a high-profile rematch against Buffalo (5-1), here’s what to watch in the teams’ Week 8 matchup. All stats are courtesy of Sports Info Solutions, Pro Football Focus, SumerSports and the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, unless otherwise noted.

1. The Bills lead the NFL in explosive-play rate, getting a pass of at least 20 yards or a run of at least 10 yards on 15.6% of their plays. Only one offense has come close to matching their big-play ability: the Lamar Jackson-led Ravens.

In Jackson’s 211 snaps this season, the Ravens have 14 explosive completions and 18 explosive runs, a 15.2% rate. In the 221 plays with him off the field, they have just five explosive completions and 11 explosive runs, a 7.2% rate, which would rank 28th in the NFL.

Wide receiver Zay Flowers and running back Derrick Henry could be the biggest beneficiaries of Jackson’s return. Flowers has averaged a ridiculous 7.84 yards per route run with Jackson on the field this season, racking up 16 catches for 353 yards in their eight quarters together. (Despite his limited playing time alongside Jackson, Flowers is still tied with the Seattle Seahawks’ Jaxon Smith-Njigba for the league lead in yards per route run, at 3.71.)

Henry, meanwhile, has averaged 4.5 yards per carry and scored seven rushing touchdowns in his 75 attempts with Jackson on the field. And he’s averaged 3.3 yards per carry and scored no rushing touchdowns in his 72 attempts without Jackson. Henry’s average yards before contact with Jackson on the field (1.45) is also more than triple what it is otherwise (0.47).

“Having Lamar back definitely gives us a jump start, just seeing him back on the field running around [with] the plays he can create,” Flowers said Wednesday.

Jackson’s ankle injury could keep him from tapping into his full range of powers, but Buffalo’s defense has been vulnerable all season. The Bills rank 27th in opponent explosive-play rate (9%) and have allowed 10 or more yards on nearly a quarter of their plays (22.9%, 30th overall).

2. Jackson acknowledged Friday that his injured ankle isn’t totally healthy; he said he still feels pain when he plants his left foot. The best medicine Sunday could be a clean pocket against a feeble Bills pass rush.

Buffalo is second to last in the NFL in pressure rate (30%) and 25th in sack rate (4.2%). Even worse, the Bills have generated pressure on just 32.1% of their blitzes, the league’s second-lowest rate. Outside linebacker Greg Rousseau has a team-high six sacks, but his last takedown came in Week 3.

The Ravens’ reshuffled interior, now without starting right guard Vega Ioane (knee), could have its hands full with defensive ​​​​linemen Deone Walker (one sack and 22 pressures in six games) and Ed Oliver (a half-sack and seven pressures in three games), who’s set to return from a knee injury. The fewer hits Jackson takes, the better positioned he’ll be for Thursday’s game against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

“When we are out there playing football, I’m not thinking about trying to manage anything,” Jackson said Friday. “I’m trying to win, so we are going out there to play football. I can’t think about managing my movements in the pocket. I’m trying to get that ball out to one of my guys and let them do the rest, if anything.”

3. The Bills can win in a lot of ways offensively: with their ground game or their passing attack, with one wide receiver on the field or three, from under-center formations or out of the shotgun. But they might look to last year’s matchup for a blueprint.

In Buffalo’s comeback win last year, the Bills mostly avoided heavy-personnel groupings and under-center looks. In 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end and three wide receivers), they averaged 6.9 yards per play. Out of the shotgun, they averaged 8.2 yards per play.

Buffalo has lined up in multiple-tight-end sets on over 52% of its plays this season, leaning on under-center looks in those groupings. But tight end Dalton Kincaid (chest), the team’s leading receiver (315 yards), is questionable for Sunday after a limited week of practice. And the Ravens have allowed just 4.5 yards per play against heavy-personnel looks and just 3.5 yards per play against under-center formations, which would be the lowest mark for any defense in a season since 2018.

If the Ravens can force the Bills to operate mostly out of the shotgun, Buffalo’s ground game could take a hit. Bills running back James Cook is averaging 5.4 yards per carry this season, but just 4.9 yards on his 14 shotgun handoffs. His success rate plummets even further, from 49.5% on under-center runs to 35.7% in the shotgun.

4. Ravens outside linebacker Mike Green made his NFL debut against the Bills last season. Seeing Allen in person, he said Wednesday, was something of a welcome-to-the-NFL moment — and a good reminder of what awaits.

Allen repeatedly took advantage of an overaggressive, underwhelming Ravens pass rush in Buffalo’s narrow win. On one of Green’s first pass rush snaps, he ended up too far upfield on an outside move, opening a lane for Allen to scramble and find wide receiver Keon Coleman for a 17-yard gain on third-and-9 in the second quarter.

When Allen left the pocket in the game last season, he went 8-for-13 for 79 yards and had five scrambles for 27 yards, averaging an elite 0.73 expected points added per drop-back.

After a sack-happy start, Allen has been dropped just four times over the past three games. He has 17 scrambles for 191 yards (11.2 per carry), 12 first downs and two touchdowns overall.

5. With the NFL’s Nov. 10 trade deadline fast approaching, the shape of this Ravens season could hinge on a two-games-in-five-days stretch.

The Ravens enter Week 8 with about a 55% chance of making the playoffs and only a 17% chance of winning the AFC North, according to The Athletic’s playoff simulator. If the Ravens beat the Bills on Sunday and the AFC South-leading Jaguars (4-2) in Baltimore on Thursday, those chances would jump to 80% and 31%, respectively.

If their two-game skid turns into a four-game skid, however, the Ravens’ playoff odds would drop to 34% and their division title odds to 8%. Split the next two games, and their playoff odds would improve slightly (59%), while their division title odds would hold steady.

A resurgent week could make general manager Eric DeCosta more willing to look for another roster piece. A 4-5 record could have the opposite effect.