CINCINNATI — This could be explained away in many ways. Perhaps it’s coincidence, and left-hander Trevor Rogers simply didn’t have his best stuff on those chilly nights when he struggled earlier this year.
Or maybe Friday’s performance on a sticky night along the banks of the Ohio River reinforces what has become a theme of sorts from this Orioles starter.
Rogers, it seems, likes it hot.
He is at his best, at least this season, when it’s sweltering.
Rogers has started seven games with a first-pitch temperature below 75 degrees, and in those games, he combined to hold a 6.94 ERA.
At Great American Ball Park, where the first-pitch temperature was 93 degrees, Rogers continued his fantastic stretch of warm-weather starts. He produced five scoreless innings, and while he walked a season-high five batters, Rogers danced around the potential danger to help Baltimore open the series against the Cincinnati Reds with a 3-0 victory.
In nine starts this season when the first-pitch temperature is 75 degrees or hotter, Rogers has a 2.92 ERA.
Rogers laughed when presented with those ERA splits between hot and chilly. When he pondered it, however, he thinks he might understand why this is the case.
“I think it’s just baseball weather, and nights like tonight, where it’s so muggy and hot, you really don’t think about anything other than trying to get back into the dugout as quick as I can,” Rogers said. “I think it’s a little tougher to play baseball in the cold, just trying to keep the body warm. But this is baseball weather, and the results speak for themselves, I guess.”
When Rogers ran into an early season rut, the first-pitch temperatures were, of course, colder on average. But his best starts early in the year came in warmer climates; his struggles in May and June came when temperatures dropped.
Rogers has also recently found life to his four-seam fastball, throwing it more often than earlier this year. And on Friday, Rogers hit 97.3 mph in the first inning, which was his fastest pitch since 2022.
“The guys told me I hit 97 and I couldn’t believe it, just with the humidity and just trying to keep my body under control,” Rogers said. “I felt good today. I didn’t think I felt like it was going to come out that well, so I’m really happy about that.”
The Orioles (41-48) managed their second shutout of the season. They remain very much on the outside looking in at the final American League wild card spot (4.5 games back as of the last out in Cincinnati), but these sorts of pitching performances are encouraging.
“First things first, we got to stop putting pressure on ourselves to sit there and compile wins,” said right-hander Tyler Wells when asked about what Baltimore must do over the next month ahead of the Aug. 3 trade deadline. “I think just kind of being able to take it off our shoulders a little bit and go out there and play freely is important.”
For how well Rogers’ pitches hummed, his command wasn’t solid. He walked five batters while allowing two hits, which offered the Reds ample opportunities. But Rogers struck out a pair of batters to strand runners on the corners to end the first inning, and he used another punchout and a pop out to strand a runner in the second.
Rogers also benefited from some fortune. With two runners on and two outs in the fifth, Eugenio Suárez lined a ball at 108.9 mph into left field. Taylor Ward caught it to help Rogers escape another jam and to hold a scoreless start.
He did it with the help of catcher Samuel Basallo behind the plate, with whom Rogers shares “a chemistry unlike I’ve had in a long time.”
Rogers has thrown to Basallo in 15 major league starts. They have paired up to produce a 2.50 ERA.
Manager Craig Albernaz said their connection is noticeable, but it’s not one he brings up, “because you don’t want to call it out and the next thing you know, people are thinking about it.” He doesn’t want to alter a good thing.
“I feel like I have a good understanding of what he likes to do, what he wants to do out there, really understanding what’s working for him that specific night,” Basallo said through team interpreter Brandon Quinones.
With those five innings, Rogers’ ERA from June and July is 1.77. He has found his rhythm as the weather warmed, and in doing so, Rogers looks like his dominant 2025 self.
Rogers also benefited from immediate offensive support. In the first inning, Gunnar Henderson led off with a walk and reached second on Taylor Ward’s single. When Henderson broke for third as part of a double steal, Reds catcher Tyler Stephenson overthrew the base, allowing Henderson to scamper home.
And in the third inning, Basallo showed off his opposite-field power by driving a two-run shot off right-hander Brady Singer. The blast, which left on a line, was Basallo’s 13th home run of the season.
Basallo said he’s always had power like that to the opposite field. His coach growing up in the Dominican Republic made sure of it.
“My coach would force me to hit the ball only to the opposite field, because at the time I was already able to easily hit it out to right field,” the 21-year-old said. “I feel like from there on out I was really able to perfect my swing, so to speak, and get a lot better and be able to hit the ball out to that opposite field.”
That was all the offense Baltimore required for Rogers and the relievers following him. Right-hander Rico Garcia pitched two scoreless innings, and right-hander Yennier Cano followed with a scoreless eighth that ended when Henderson, at shortstop, charged a slowly hit chopper, barehanded the ball and threw Stephenson out.
That set up for Wells in a save situation. With right-hander Ryan Helsley returning to the injured list, there’s an opening at the back end of games. Wells’ last save came in 2023, but he filled in admirably for the ninth to secure a win that Rogers began on a hot, sweaty evening — just how he likes it.
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