Jon Meoli: Jackson Holliday is on the cusp of 1,000 plate appearances. Can he still develop into a star?

When Jackson Holliday steps to the plate for the first time in Houston, where the Orioles begin the second half and hope to resume their playoff push, he’ll be doing so for the 1,000th time as a big leaguer. At 22 years old, just over four years after being the first overall pick in the 2022, that will put him in exclusive company as many of his peers are still toiling in the minors.

About one draftee per year can say he accrued that much major league experience so quickly since the league instituted the draft in 1965, and it’s even fewer than that in the last 30 years.

On some days, Holliday feels as if he’s been doing this for a while. On others, he wonders: “What the hell am I doing swinging at that? Maybe I haven’t been in the big leagues that long; still learning how to do this.”

He wasn’t aware of this looming milestone until we spoke last week. He’s focused on getting going on offense and perhaps is doing so after finishing the first half with five hits, including a double, and four walks in 14 plate appearance over his last five games.

To match the accolades of his early-arriving peers, Holliday is going to need a lot more stretches like that. Almost all of the others who got to the big leagues as young as he did were stars by this point. Think Mike Trout, Alex Rodriguez and Bryce Harper, to start.

If Holliday gets to that level, he’ll be the only one to have done so after experiencing the early-career struggles he has.

Since 1995, 22 players have made at least 1,000 major league plate appearances by the end of their age 22 seasons. Only one did so with a lower OPS than the .665 mark Holliday has at 999 plate appearances, and even he hit the ground running. That would be Mike Caruso, an infielder who in 1998 skipped the high minors and had a .721 OPS for the White Sox while finishing third in AL Rookie of the Year voting. But he had a .577 OPS in 1999 and appeared in just 12 major league games after that.

All the others had at least a .700 OPS through their age 22 seasons, and the worst among them to that point were still All-Stars. Carl Crawford had a .715 OPS, next lowest ahead of Caruso, though the last year of that (2004) was the first of four All-Star seasons for him.

Next lowest on the list was Addison Russell, who was also an All-Star at 22, albeit with a .718 overall OPS through his first two seasons. The only others to have an OPS+ under 100 — with 100 representing league average — were Delmon Young, Eric Hosmer and Rocco Baldelli.

It takes a special player to get to the big leagues that quickly, and Holliday, son of former All-Star Matt Holliday, fit the bill. He blazed through the minors, finishing 2023 at Triple-A after producing a .941 OPS over four levels and competing for a major league role in spring training as the Orioles’ and the game’s top prospect.

He didn’t make the opening day roster in 2024, then was up a week later and struggled for 10 games before returning to the minors.

He returned to the big leagues on July 31 and hit a grand slam to mark the occasion, then had a .650 OPS the rest of the way. He had a few hot spells in 2025 and spent most of the Tony Mansolino era as the team’s leadoff hitter, ending with a .690 OPS.

A broken hamate bone where the hand meets the wrist required surgery this spring, and after a stop-start rehabilitation process, he debuted June 19 and entered the break with a .702 OPS.

Manager Craig Albernaz, noting that Holliday didn’t have a spring training and the accompanying runway to prepare for the season, is “holding his own” and his ability to do so “makes the future bright for Jackson.”

Holliday said before the game July 8 that “hitting the ball through the middle of the field on fastballs is probably something that, if I start doing it a little bit more, it’ll probably start to click.” That night, he did so three times for base hits as part of a four-hit night.

“It’s something I’ve been grinding on and trying to get back to, because when I’m doing that, usually things are going right,” he said. “If I can hit the fastball to the opposite field and see spin, I can turn through it. That’s something that probably, sooner or later, will start to click.”

He’s also heartened by the walks he’s taking. Holliday’s 14.8% walk rate is well up from last year’s 8.6%. Given he’s hitting at the bottom of the lineup, he sees it as his responsibility to “take really good at-bats and try to get on base for those guys, because when I do get on base, good things seem to happen with those guys around me.”

That, combined with an improved contact profile — albeit with less power behind it, presumably due to the lingering effects of his surgery — creates a foundation for Holliday to build on. All the things that made him appealing to the Orioles at No. 1 overall in 2022 — his plate discipline, contact ability and athleticism — remain the reasons he can develop into, as Mike Elias described him on draft night, a “potential star, playing shortstop, batting in the middle of the order and doing so for a very long time.”

Holliday is still part of a small subset of players his age who are big league regulars right now, so writing off that upside feels early. Many players who have as much major league experience at this age enjoy immediate stardom. Far more players develop into All-Stars more gradually.

He sees his own opportunity to make good on it the same as his team’s, with the Orioles five games under .500 but just two games out of the wild card.

“Looking through the team, we have so much potential and show it here and there and, obviously, we’re really not that far out of it in the grand scheme of things,” he said. “Win a few games here, go on a little run, we’re right back in the mix of being a playoff team. I know everyone in this clubhouse knows and thinks that we are a playoff team. Obviously, it’s a very long season. We still have an entire half to go, and that’s really exciting.”