Inside the Dugout: 6 thoughts on the trade deadline

It makes sense why the trade deadline, which is over six weeks away, is such a salient topic right now when it comes to the Orioles. It’s just a frustrating one.

The July 31 deadline has become a de facto measuring stick for how much ground the Orioles can make up in the standings and how quickly they can do it. It feels weird to be hand-wringing about something that far away now that this team is finally playing good baseball — winners of four of six, 11 of 16, and 14 of 21 — but that’s a consequence of the start of the season we all have to live with.

But just because something feels weird doesn’t mean I can ignore it, try as I might. And it doesn’t help that the view I’m forming feels a bit contrarian: I’m not sure we need to be watching the standings to determine what the Orioles do at the deadline. Some decisions are easier to make than others if the team is well and truly out of contention, and for a front office that always has an eye toward the long-term health of the organization, the moves that will allow them to best do that without gutting the present are apparent.

As an exercise (slash gimmick) to lay out my thoughts, given we’re nearly six weeks out from the deadline, I set out to make six points in 600 words. And though no one will believe me, I hit it at 600 on the nose without even trying. No pressure, editors. (Ed. Note: Challenge accepted. It’s shorter now.)

1. CORE STAYS PUT: The idea that the Orioles move any long-term core piece is a dumb one that I won’t entertain, mostly because I doubt they would. Figured I’d just keep the first one short to bank some words for later.
2. ROTATION RESHUFFLE: I expect some rotation moves whether the Orioles are back in the hunt or not. With Zach Eflin, Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton all pending free agents, the near-term impact of moving any of them would be mitigated by sliding Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, Tyler Wells or even this potentially fixed version of Trevor Rogers, to say nothing of prospects like Chayce McDermott or Brandon Young. The Orioles must weigh the potential value of a qualifying offer to someone like Eflin, but come winter, they’ll face the same rotation conundrum as the last few: The only way to upgrade the rotation will be at the top. Culling the depth for value now would be smart in that context.
3. THE MULLINS DILEMMA: The intangible impact of moving Cedric Mullins would at least be on par with the divisive Trey Mancini trade from 2022. I don’t know if the Orioles consider whether a trade like that is, from a sentiment standpoint, “worth it” versus the actual value of the deal as they are running their projections, but at this stage in their competitive cycle, they should. I also don’t mind the risk of Mullins accepting the qualifying offer (worth $21.05 million last year) and sticking around for another year. 
4. O’HEARN’S TRADE VALUE: The Orioles would have to be truly out of it to trade Ryan O’Hearn, considering he’ll be a massive part of any turnaround they make, but he’d be perhaps the best bat on the market and probably bring back the best package out of any of the Orioles’ pending free agents. We’ll learn a lot about how they view the end of the season based on how they weigh two months of O’Hearn against, say, two or three good prospects with six-plus years of control. I wouldn’t want to do it, but I’d be open to it if I were them.
5. BULLPEN CALCULUS: The opportunity to squeeze some juice out of the bullpen, which is collectively outstanding right now, would be a welcome one for the Orioles considering they gave up a lot last year to fortify it and could probably stand to bring something back. The problem is there’s not as much obvious depth to replace Seranthony Domínguez or Gregory Soto if either is moved. I’m not sure that stops them, but there’s always a scenario where someone bumped from the rotation moves to the bullpen down the stretch.
6. PLENTY TO DEAL: It was gallows humor in the offseason to joke about how the Orioles wouldn’t buy at the deadline because their returning starting pitchers would count as their deadline upgrades. Given how this season started, they probably won’t do much buying anyway. I just feel compelled to point out that they’d be in a much better place than in years past, given the state of the farm. It was hard to make deals when their seventh-best prospect was as good as another team’s second, and so much talent was near-major league ready. The uptick in production from their international program and pitching pipeline means there’s all kinds of prospect depth that they could package to get deals done without impacting the top of the farm. That’ll still be the case this winter, but it’s worth saying.

Ballpark chatter

“An All-American kid.”

— Brian Matusz’s high school coach, Danny Rodriguez

I can’t imagine anyone missed the fantastic work from Lee Sanderlin and Danielle Allentuck on former Oriole Brian Matusz’s death and the challenges of transitioning to life after baseball.

If so, take some time to read it. It’s just a sobering reminder of how little we know about these athletes we watch on the field — even those of us in the media who spend time around them — and how important it is to check in on your friends when you can.

Talent pipeline

Right-hander Nestor German’s six shutout innings with six strikeouts on Friday earned him Eastern League Pitcher of the Week honors as German continues to settle in at Double-A Chesapeake.

He was promoted from High-A Aberdeen on May 13 and has made five starts for the Baysox; the first was scoreless, he allowed five earned runs in each of the next two, and then the two most recent were scoreless as well. He’s fanned 24 in 26 innings with a 1.12 WHIP at the level.

I’m really looking forward to seeing him pitch soon.

By the numbers

.838

Dylan Carlson returned to the Orioles on May 18, and has been among their best hitters since then, entering Monday’s game with a .292 average and an .838 OPS with four home runs, tied for the most of any Orioles hitter in that span.

He’s presumably here to hit lefties, which he has in that span with a 1.038 OPS in 16 plate appearances, but he’s also boasting a .785 OPS against righties in that time, which is well above his historic performance.

If this is a durable improvement, he’s going to be a useful player here for a while.

For further reading

😕 Another missed opportunity: I was a bit of a butthead when I wrote this column about the O’s losing to lefty Tarik Skubal, but let me explain my thinking. It just felt like a tremendous opportunity, and in the context of a 4-2 homestand, losing wasn’t the biggest deal. This just doesn’t feel like a time for moral victories, and it would have been a meaningful win, given the circumstances.

🎯 Pitch analysis: This was a good look by Andy at a new pitch from Seranthony Domínguez in the Orioles bullpen. Love a new pitch story.