Trading Foster Griffin makes sense on paper. But the Nationals shouldn’t.

As the Nationals inch closer to Monday’s MLB trade deadline, my brain feels a bit broken as I think about Foster Griffin and what they should do with the left-hander.

My baseball brain tells me the right choice is to trade Griffin if the Nationals get a worthy return — and I’m sure they will — in a market hungry for starting pitching. Rebuilding teams trade valuable players because that’s what they are supposed to do. It makes sense. In some ways, it feels inevitable.

And that’s why I feel crazy for what I’ve felt in my gut in recent days: that the Nationals should keep Griffin. But it’s how I feel. And now it’s published for the world to see.

Teams play to win, not to acquire prospects. No one truly knows how many shots you get to do so. The Nationals shouldn’t mortgage their future going all in. But they should try to win with Griffin.

That’s not to say Washington shouldn’t make other forward-thinking moves. But, for the first time in years, with Washington in the running for a wild-card spot, Nationals games matter. Playing meaningful baseball now is a forward-thinking decision. Griffin’s presence on the mound every fifth day gives them their best chance to compete.

On Friday night in Atlanta, Griffin could pitch his final game in a Nationals uniform. A Nationals fan would have applauded that idea in April. It likely wouldn’t have felt painful. But Griffin has turned himself from an expendable arm to someone who might be too good to give away.

The Nationals signed him to a one-year, $5.5 million deal in the offseason, taking on a reclamation project who played in Japan for three seasons. He’s been better than they could’ve imagined en route to his first All-Star appearance.

He went eight straight starts allowing one run or fewer until his last start, when he gave up three. The Nationals are 17-4 in games Griffin starts.

That the Nationals have a decision to make in the coming days is a credit to the players, coaching staff and front office. Whichever way they go, the choice represents how far the team has come and, to me, pushes up their rebuild timeline.

That said, it’s still Year 1 for president of baseball operations Paul Toboni. It’d be silly for Washington to trade minor leaguers it values highly to bolster this 2026 team. Toboni has to operate delicately, making choices that balance short-term success and long-term sustainability.

I don’t envy his position at all, though he got off to a great start on Saturday night, trading infielder Curtis Mead for lefty Connelly Early. It was a shrewd move, acquiring a young, controllable arm who helps the Nationals now and in the years to come. The trade felt like a no-brainer. Not every move will be.

CJ Abrams, the best hitter potentially on the market, will be highly coveted. And Toboni should hold a high bar. Abrams is on pace for 40 homers, which would make him only the third shortstop since 2020 to hit at least 35 in a season. He’s better than any bat available in this upcoming free-agent class, too.

Still, it feels like he’s playing too well and is too vital to this high-powered offense to trade unless the offer blows the Nationals out of the water. There are other hitters, though, who aren’t as valuable and could be worth dealing.

Jacob Young, with his elite defense and baserunning, could be a better fit on another roster. Luis García Jr., in the midst of a breakout season, could be dealt, too, because of his strong performance against right-handed pitching.

The Nationals should also consider making trades — prospect-for-prospect deals — to add to their system.

Trading Griffin, though, isn’t an easy choice. The Nationals don’t have to trade him, as they’ve had to with veterans on expiring contracts in seasons prior. There are many factors to consider.

For one: the rest of the starting pitching market. If Tarik Skubal or Joe Ryan is available, Griffin won’t be the top name. Skubal seems likely to move, though Ryan probably won’t.

But, if teams missed out on Skubal, perhaps they’d be desperate enough to give up more for Griffin if they favor him more than the rest of the starting pitching group available (such as the Angels’ Reid Detmers and José Soriano and the Mets’ Freddy Peralta). If a team views Griffin as a second or third starter, the Nationals could net a strong return.

To be clear, I wouldn’t fault the Nationals for trading Griffin. I get it. In fact, I feel a little insane for thinking they shouldn’t.

He’s a free agent after this season, meaning the Nationals could lose him for nothing. Acquiring Early, to an extent, softens the blow if Griffin is dealt. A desperate team could provide depth to a Nationals system that has improved a lot but could benefit from more talent.

But the Nationals could keep Griffin and extend him a qualifying offer or a contract extension this offseason. After all, his best season came in Washington. Perhaps the Nationals could convince him it’s in his best interest to build continuity where he’s had success.

There’s another factor, too. You don’t know how many chances you get to win. The Nationals are right on par with, if not better than, most of the teams in the mix for the final playoff spot. They just took two of three from the Diamondbacks, who are tied with the Phillies in the standings. They occupy the second and third spots.

Even if developing a deeper farm system gives a team a longer window of contention on paper, it doesn’t guarantee it. Just ask the Orioles, who were 2.5 games out of the wild card when they traded Trey Mancini and Jorge López in 2022. Yes, the Orioles “won the trade”; Mancini and López peaked in Baltimore. Baltimore turned López into four prospects including Yennier Cano, one of their best relievers.

But four years later the Orioles have two playoff appearances, zero wins and a lot of underwhelming baseball to show for it. That’s not to say the Nationals are destined for that fate. But baseball isn’t predictable.

The business element of baseball, while vital, can allow us to neglect the human element. This group of Nationals has not experienced this level of success in the major leagues.

The clubhouse, in my view, has earned the right to have its best opportunity to win. It’d be refreshing for fans who are sick of seeing their best players shipped off every year.

The Nationals may not hoist a World Series trophy. They might not even make the playoffs this year. But they are trying to establish a winning culture. What better way to prepare for playoff baseball in the years to come than playing meaningful baseball now?

Every time Griffin takes the ball, the Nationals feel they have a chance. Every time he leaves the mound, he gives the fan base something to get excited about. That’s been rare over the last six years. And it’s something we shouldn’t take for granted. The Nationals shouldn’t trade him, and that feeling, away.