Majority opposes redistricting amendment in UMBC poll

A majority of Marylanders polled say they oppose Democrats’ plans to make it easier to gerrymander congressional districts, according to statewide poll results released Wednesday.

Just 25% of likely voters said they would vote for a constitutional amendment on redistricting that will appear as Question 3 on general election ballots, according to a poll from the University of Maryland, Baltimore County’s Institute of Politics.

A majority of those polled — 53% — said they would vote against Question 3. A total of 19% were undecided.

The survey of 776 likely voters was conducted Sept. 22-27 via landlines, cellphones and text messages. The margin of error is 3.5 percentage points.

The strongest opposition came from Republicans, with 74% saying they would vote no, along with 59% of independents and 42% of Democrats.

“I’m not convinced it will pass,” said Mileah Kromer, director of UMBC’s Institute of Politics.

The UMBC poll summarized Question 3 for poll participants — a different approach from previous polls that read the question word-for-word as it appears on the ballot.

Two other polls, one commissioned by Question 3 supporters and another by opponents, came up with different levels of voter support. The opposition group’s poll found Question 3 had 28% support, and the supporting group’s poll found Question 3 had 40% support.

“The difference between our poll and the ballot language polls suggest that effective messaging could move it either way,” Kromer said.

The high rate of undecided voters — 19% — means both sides of the debate have room to sway voters. But it’s unclear if their messages will get through; neither group has been advertising heavily yet.

“There’s going to be a lot of voters in Maryland … who will quite literally not think about Question 3 until they see the ballot," Kromer said. “Then it’s anybody’s guess.”

The Question 3 constitutional change is intended to remove legal hurdles preventing Democrats from creating a map that could give the party an electoral edge in Maryland’s eight U.S. House seats. The state currently has seven Democrats and one Republican, Rep. Andy Harris, in the U.S. House.

Whether Maryland should join other states in redistricting mid-cycle has divided Democrats for nearly a year, brought national pressure from party leaders seeking to recapture the House majority, and incensed Republicans.

Gov. Wes Moore, a Democrat, has been a chief promoter of redrawing Maryland’s House districts to counter Republican gerrymandering in other states that followed a directive from President Donald Trump.

During Tuesday’s gubernatorial debate, Moore said: “We are not going to allow Donald Trump to determine our democracy. The people of Maryland will determine our democracy. So I will vote yes.”

Republican candidate Dan Cox said he is against Question 3.

Banner reporters Lee O. Sanderlin and Brenda Wintrode contributed to this article.