Second poll finds more supportive view of Maryland redistricting vote

A new poll shows 40% of likely voters would vote for an amendment to Maryland’s constitution that would make future congressional gerrymandering easier.

Another 35% of those surveyed were opposed, and 25% were not sure.

The poll, commissioned by Fight Back MD, a coalition that supports the constitutional change, comes days after a group opposing the redistricting measure released a poll showing a lack of support for the amendment.

The survey of 600 likely voters was conducted Sept. 8-10 via landlines, cellphones and text messaging. The margin of error is 4.1 percentage points. Hart Research Associates, which polls for Democratic clients including Gov. Wes Moore, conducted the poll.

Appearing on the ballot as Question 3, the change is intended to remove legal hurdles preventing Democrats from creating a map that could give the party an electoral edge in Maryland’s eight U.S. House seats.

Advocates and opponents are gearing up to win over voters on what could be this year’s most contentious issue. Whether Maryland should join other states in redistricting mid-cycle has divided Democrats for nearly a year, brought national pressure from party leaders seeking to recapture the House majority, and incensed Republicans.

Earlier this week, opponents of the constitutional change released a poll showing 28% would vote yes compared to 41% who would vote no, with 31% unsure.

Both polls read the full Question 3 ballot language to participants. It does not include the term “gerrymandering” and only obliquely refers to redistricting.

But if voters approve Question 3, Democratic leaders in Annapolis would have a freer hand when they next draw congressional district boundaries — and some want to draw a map aimed at ousting the lone congressional Republican in Maryland, U.S. Rep. Andy Harris.

The Fight Back MD poll also tested “positive” messaging about Question 3. After being told more about Question 3 — the exact wording was not released — support rose to 53% in favor, with 37% opposed and 11% undecided.

Pollster Fred Yang, CEO of Hart Research Associates, wrote in a memo that proponents have an opportunity to get Question 3 approved if they can get their message out.

“The ability for the Question 3 campaign to move voters to the affirmative column is evident when we provide a short positive messaging statement. ... With one short positive message, Question 3 receives a 53% majority and a solid double-digit advantage,” Yang wrote.

A common theme across both polls was the significant portion of voters who remain unsure about Question 3, with mail ballots arriving this week and in-person voting beginning in four weeks.

“Our survey data indicates that a large share of Marylanders, including Democrats, lack sufficient knowledge of the measure, which helps explain the high undecided,” Yang wrote in his poll memo.

Top Maryland politicians remain divided along party lines.

Speaking at the 49th Annual J. Millard Tawes Crab & Clam Bake on the Eastern Shore on Wednesday, Moore expressed confidence that Question 3 would pass. He’s been a chief proponent of redrawing congressional boundaries in Maryland to favor Democrats, and put forward his own 8-0 map.

Moore noted that when he first started running for governor in 2021, he polled in single digits.

“I’m a perfect example of: Do not pay attention to polls, pay attention to Election Day. And I want people to go out there and vote yes,” Moore told reporters.

Harris, meanwhile, also made the rounds at the Tawes crab feast, but with a decidedly different message.

“Marylanders overwhelmingly don’t like the idea of gerrymandering. That’s what Question 3 is all about,” Harris said.

He added, “I think the governor’s going to lose on that.”