Maryland redistricting question faces significant opposition, poll finds

Maryland Democrats’ efforts to make it easier to gerrymander congressional districts have more opposition than support, according to a statewide poll released Tuesday by a group opposing redistricting.

The poll found that 41% of Marylanders are opposed to a constitutional amendment on redistricting that will appear as Question 3 on general election ballots.

Just 28% of those polled supported the redistricting question, while 31% remain undecided.

The poll was paid for by Protect Maryland Votes, a coalition opposed to redistricting. The coalition hired both a Democratic polling firm, Lincoln Park Strategies, and a Republican firm, Ragnar Research Partners, to jointly conduct the poll in an attempt to counter any partisan bias.

The survey of 600 likely voters was conducted through landline and cellphone interviews from Sept. 10-13. The margin of error is 4 percentage points.

Republican voters were most likely to oppose the constitutional amendment, with 60% saying they’d vote against it.

Among independent voters, also known as unaffiliated voters, 42% were opposed.

Democratic voters were split among their choices: 35% said they would vote for the constitutional amendment, 32% would vote against and 33% were undecided.

If the constitutional change is approved by voters, the Democrats who hold power in Annapolis would have a freer hand when they next draw congressional district boundaries — and they could draw a map aimed at ousting the lone congressional Republican in Maryland, U.S. Rep. Andy Harris.

The redistricting debate has divided Democrats for nearly a year and has brought national pressure from party leaders seeking an edge in recapturing a House majority.

This poll represents the first assessment of how Maryland residents feel about the issue since it was approved for the ballot, with a little more than four weeks until early voting begins and six weeks until Election Day.

“This poll confirms what we have always believed, that Marylanders across party lines understand the difference between right and wrong,” Yuripzy Morgan, a Republican podcaster and leader of Protect Maryland Votes, said in a statement.

The measure, Question 3, asks voters to sign off on a change to the state’s constitution. The revision would make clear that congressional districts can be drawn without taking into account compactness, natural boundaries, or city and county lines.

Pollsters read the exact wording of Question 3 to participants, then asked them whether they would vote for or against it.

The state constitution’s wording on drawing districts historically had been interpreted to apply only to General Assembly districts. A court ruling in 2022 applied the standards to congressional districts as well, and some Democrats cited that ruling when opposing efforts to redraw those maps earlier this year.

The constitutional change was pushed by Democrats, including Gov. Wes Moore, who unsuccessfully attempted to revise congressional district maps earlier this year. That change could have resulted in a Democratic sweep of all eight U.S. House seats.

The constitutional change addresses concerns that an 8-0 map might not withstand a court challenge and was approved by lawmakers along party lines during a special legislative session in August. The ballot question also survived legal challenges, though the state’s top court rewrote the wording of the question.

Speaking on a podcast in Washington, D.C., on Thursday, before this poll was released, Moore said he believes there is “momentum” behind the ballot question.

“I am confident that the people, come November 3rd, are going to say that Marylanders should control our democracy and not Donald Trump, who does not have a say and does not have a legal foot to stand on,” Moore said on the Fly Out Day podcast.

If the question passes, Moore said he will sit down with General Assembly leaders “to figure out: Are we now going to listen to the will of the people and get this thing done?”

Moore and other Democrats who want to redraw the state’s congressional districts have avoided the term “gerrymandering” in favor of terms like “fair maps.”

The poll also found opposition to the practice of gerrymandering. When asked whether they would support Question 3 in order to gerrymander congressional districts, 57% said they were either “strongly” or “somewhat” opposed. Only 21% offered support.

Broken down along party lines, 52% of Democrats, 54% of independents and 68% of Republicans said they were opposed to gerrymandering.

This story will be updated.