There’s a party-switching retired banker. A MAGA supporter who got trounced last time around. A man just convicted of stalking his ex. And six others with barely existent campaigns or name recognition.
In all, nine candidates are vying to be the Maryland Republican Party’s nominee to take on deep-pocketed, well-known incumbent Democratic Gov. Wes Moore this year.
Moore is likely to sail through his Democratic primary this month, facing only token opposition.
But it’s anybody’s guess who will win the Republican nomination, with no public polling or other indicators of the state of the race.
Will it be Ed Hale Sr., owner of the Baltimore Blast soccer team, who once started a bank? Or will Republicans choose Dan Cox, a former state delegate who was easily dispatched by Moore in 2022?
Hale and Cox are treating the race like they’re front-runners.
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They’re the only two who have raised enough money to put on some semblance of a political campaign. Hale spent about $119,000 in the last few weeks and had $30,000 on hand going into the final days, while Cox spent about $14,000 and had $30,000 in the bank for the home stretch.
Moore, in comparison, has more than $7 million in the bank.
The choice for Republican voters perhaps boils down to which candidate is their preferred brand of conservative: a MAGA loyalist or a new convert who spent his life as a Democrat?
Switching party for necessity
Hale, who ran a transportation company and founded a bank formerly known as First Mariner, was a Democrat until last summer. Hale’s switch to the GOP came after polling showed that he had no chance to beat Moore in a Democratic primary.
In a recent podcast interview, Hale said he’s always considered himself conservative. But he was registered as a Democrat and donated to Democratic candidates, he said, because that was necessary to have influence in Baltimore and for his businesses to be successful.
“I couldn’t build anything without having a D next to my name,” Hale told host Torrey Snow on the “Free Range Politics” podcast.
On that podcast, Hale also made clear that he’s no Trump sycophant, saying he hadn’t spoken to Trump in some 20 years. (Hale co-chaired the Miss USA pageant when it was held in Baltimore in 2004 and met Trump in that role.) But he also said he wouldn’t tangle with Trump, as Moore has.
“I’m into solutions. I’m not into arguing with President Trump,” Hale told podcast host Yuripzy Morgan.
Hale faces a challenge in defining himself to Republican voters compared with Cox, who is well-known to Republicans who have cast ballots for him before, said Mileah Kromer, director of the Institute of Politics at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County.
Hale’s team did not make him available for an interview with The Banner.
Democrats boost Cox — again
Cox was previously endorsed by President Donald Trump and hosted buses that took people to Washington on Jan. 6, 2021 — though Cox has said he left before protesters stormed the U.S. Capitol.
Even though Cox is not “leaning into” his MAGA roots as much in this election, his history “will do well for him in the primary, certainly. But it’s going to be a problem in the general election,” Kromer said.
The Maryland Democratic Party has jumped into the race with a mailer that appears to promote Cox to Republican voters. It quotes Trump praising Cox as “MAGA all the way” a few years ago and notes Hale’s party switch last summer.
“Now he wants voters to trust his word?” the mailer says of Hale. “That’s a risk voters cannot afford to take.”
Cox has long been a supporter of Trump, volunteering as a lawyer for post-2020 election challenges. He touted a Trump endorsement the last time around but hasn’t landed an endorsement from the president this year.
Cox spent one term in the House of Delegates, passing two bills: creating a task force to study criminal penalties and requiring courthouses to post a sign advertising a human trafficking hotline.
He also sued Hogan over coronavirus-era health restrictions, worked for a time for Pennsylvania state Sen. Doug Mastriano and represented a gun store owner who was acquitted of federal charges in a high-profile case linked to the Frederick County sheriff. The gun store owner, Rob Krop, is now Cox’s running mate for lieutenant governor.
Recently, Cox has been fending off what he says is a “false and desperate smear campaign” that alleges he “colluded” with Democrats.
Cox appears to be responding to revived discussion of an unusual element of the 2022 campaign: The Democratic Governors Association spent millions on ads touting Cox, a move designed to boost his candidacy because Democrats thought Cox was easier to beat.
History may be repeating itself with the Maryland Democratic Party mailer, which Cox said in a statement is a “dirty and disgusting tactic” that appears to “interfere and meddle in the Republican primary.”
Hale campaign spokesman Andrew Brightwell, meanwhile, said in a statement that Moore must be “terrified of a successful businessman being the Republican nominee, so they’re pulling out all the stops to stop him.”
Cox’s team has not responded to interview requests.
The rest of the field
Seven other candidates on the ballot have little to show in the way of campaigns. They have not raised much money, and their campaigns mostly consist of attending candidate forums.
One of those candidates, Douglas Larcomb, was convicted of stalking, witness intimidation and multiple counts of violating a protective order following a trial in Frederick County this month.
The other Republican candidates on the ballot are: Carl A. Brunner Jr., L.D. Burkindine, John A. Myrick, Michael Oakes, Nancy Jane Taylor and Shannon Wright.
Maryland has a little more than 1 million active registered Republican voters, but only a portion will vote in the primary. Four years ago, Cox won the primary with 52% of the approximately 295,000 votes that were cast.
Uphill battle
Both Hale and Cox are trying to win over voters through social media posts and by making the rounds of conservative media. They have also made similarly broad promises to improve affordability if elected.
They have criticized the state’s gas tax, which changes based on a formula tied to inflation, as well as vehicle registration fees and a sales tax on certain tech and data services. Cox also has his eye on the property tax, saying he’d start by locking in property taxes based on a home’s sale price and eventually study how to eliminate property taxes and put in place a “fairer” but unspecified tax system.
Both men have also said they’d boost in-state electricity production as a way to bring down energy bills for consumers.
Hale stresses that he’s got a better shot at taking down Moore, given how poorly Cox performed last time, when he lost 65% to 32%.
“What it all boils down to is: This is an issue of electability,” said Hale’s lieutenant governor running mate, Tyrone Keys. “We have seen the other major candidate in the race. We all know how that ended up against Wes Moore last time.”
No matter who becomes the Republican nominee, they face an uphill battle against Moore. Despite a dip in his approval rating, Moore remains popular among Democrats, who make up more than half of the voting population. He also has all the advantages of incumbency and a pile of campaign cash, Kromer said.
For a Republican to win a statewide race in Maryland, they must win over Democratic and independent voters — as Kromer documented in her book about Hogan, “Blue State Republican.” Sharing a party with Trump doesn’t help.
“The things that can get you through a Republican primary and get those voters excited are the things that are just so detrimental when you get to the general election,” Kromer said.
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