Wes Moore’s future is tied to Baltimore. That cuts both ways.

Many of the big moments of Gov. Wes Moore’s first term were connected to Baltimore.

The Key Bridge collapse and response. Signing the Orioles to a decades-long lease that keeps them in Baltimore. Inviting Donald Trump to see the city in person after the president questioned its safety.

Moore’s election was widely viewed as a boon for Baltimore — a governor who had lived there and recognized that a healthier city meant a healthier Maryland. But as Baltimore draws national admiration for its efforts to reduce homicides and vacant homes, the city’s upswing could also benefit Moore as he seeks a second term and, possibly, a 2028 presidential run.

Moore has prioritized persistent Baltimore problems, focusing on policing and gun safety laws, committing tens of millions to reducing vacant properties, and targeting the state’s lowest-income communities with a new anti-poverty program. But undelivered promises, like building the Red Line, and the state’s projected multibillion-dollar budget shortfalls could make future progress more difficult.

Baltimore’s trajectory and Moore’s political future are connected, said Mileah Kromer, director of the University of Maryland, Baltimore County’s Institute of Politics.

“The improvements happening in Baltimore today could become part of Moore’s future presidential platform,” she said. “President Trump’s repeated criticisms of Baltimore put the city in the national spotlight, which gives Moore an opportunity to draw a contrast and speak authentically about his vision for America and its urban centers.”

Moore acknowledged the stakes in April at Big Bets for America, a roving conference sponsored by The Rockefeller Foundation.

“Tell me a single state in this country that is clicking on all cylinders when its largest city is not. Mathematically, it’s impossible,” he told a full ballroom at Fells Point’s Pendry Baltimore hotel.

“You’ve actually now seen real results over just a few-year period, and there’s momentum that we’ve got to be able to build on the momentum,” he said.

Moore’s tone is a far cry from that of his predecessor, Larry Hogan, who had a more complicated relationship with the city. In 2015, the then-governor’s administration published a state map of transportation projects that omitted Baltimore, instead depicting the city as an extension of the Chesapeake Bay.

Kaye Whitehead, an author, professor and radio host on WEAA, said deliverables matter for the governor’s reputation, but the vibe shift from Hogan’s administration to Moore’s cannot be underestimated, particularly in a majority-Democratic city.

“Under Larry Hogan, it felt like Baltimore was not a part of Maryland,” she said. “It felt like our problems were insurmountable.”

Moore has been a far more visible presence in the city, Whitehead said, often seen alongside city leaders like Mayor Brandon Scott. That’s been a boost for Baltimore, observers argued.

Kromer said Moore hasn’t just fostered good relationships of his own. He’s also helped to mediate conflicts between others. Kromer said the governor has been instrumental in mediating a dispute between Scott and Baltimore State’s Attorney Ivan Bates. The two have a long-standing rift.

“I think that Moore has done a good job sort of bridging that divide because he has obviously put a lot more money into public safety and law enforcement, specifically to the Baltimore Police Department over the years,” she said. City leaders get the lion’s share of the credit, but so should Moore and the state, according to Kromer.

Baltimore City Council member Phylicia Porter pointed to increased state funding for infrastructure like the Hanover Street Bridge and money for the new Jumbo Fresh grocery store in her district under the Moore administration.

“We previously did not have that partnership before with the state, and so any issues that we would raise to the state, in my opinion, under the Hogan administration, they were dismissed,” Porter said.

Porter singled out a four-year, $100 million program aimed at reducing the number of children living in poverty, known as ENOUGH, which she believes has been effective in Cherry Hill and Brooklyn. That investment mostly grew out of a 30-minute conversation between the council member and Moore in Annapolis in 2023 following a mass shooting at Brooklyn Park and the subsequent advocacy work connected to it, Porter added.

“He understands the weight of the issues that are happening in some of the more red parts of my district and some of the more red parts of the state of Maryland,” she said, referring to constituents who lean conservative or Republican. “He has visited there. He has invested there.”

Porter said her next goal is crime prevention and public safety support for areas like Morrell Park and Carrollton Ridge.

Scott said Moore has also come through financially to tackle Baltimore’s vacant housing crisis. The state has contributed $50 million annually under Moore toward demolishing, rehabilitating and acquiring vacant properties. And the governor believes the city is on track to eliminate vacant properties within 11 years.

The Moore administration says it inherited a Baltimore that was averaging nearly a homicide a day, where crime was rampant and the economy had stalled.

“The governor has been clear since day one: In order for this to be Maryland’s decade, it must be Baltimore’s time,” spokesperson Carter Elliott IV said. “He has delivered time and time again on the promises he made to help turn Baltimore into a thriving home once again.”

Moore points to investments since he took office: a 39% increase in state funding for city schools, in part because of a school funding law; a $337 million science center and other new buildings at Morgan State University; $100 million for Reinvest Baltimore, a program to redevelop 5,000 vacant city properties in five years, according to the budget.

Moore said the state has sent $9.1 billion to Baltimore during his term.

City Council President Zeke Cohen sees a completely different approach to Baltimore under Moore than under previous governors.

“It’s a real sea change with Wes, really,” Cohen said. “You know, having an actual friend in the governor’s mansion. It really does make a difference, both psychologically and then in terms of real investment in dollars.”

Still, there are lofty promises Moore has yet to fulfill. Several times he has extended the timeline for the rebuild of the Key Bridge, which was initially pledged to be completed by 2028. The administration now says construction, delayed by a change in contractors after costs were found to be billions more than anticipated, could stretch past 2030.

Moore also has yet to make substantial progress on the Red Line. He said he would deliver the east-west transit line by the end of his second term, but the project has stalled, costs have risen, and it’s not clear if, how or when it will be completed.

Whitehead said the governor’s fortune will be linked to Baltimore’s — for better or worse. As the city has largely taken an upward trajectory, Moore has benefited, even if he cannot personally claim credit for those gains. If progress falters, Moore will likewise be held responsible, she said.

“Sometimes you win because you win, and sometimes you win because you’re there,” Whitehead said. “It’s the same thing with losing.”