What could go wrong? 10 reasons the Ravens’ Super Bowl dreams could be a mirage.

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Before Jesse Minter ever got the job in Baltimore, he knew the expectations. Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti had let the whole world know just a week after firing longtime coach John Harbaugh.

Brian Billick needed two years to win a Super Bowl in Baltimore, Bisciotti said. Harbaugh took five. “Maybe I’ll give this guy six,” Bisciotti joked at a January news conference.

It might not take that long. Oddsmakers have the Ravens as one of the AFC’s favorites to win the Super Bowl.

Of course, high expectations have laid the Ravens low before. With their season opener against the Indianapolis Colts just five days away, here are 10 reasons Minter’s debut season could be a dud.

1. History says Jesse Minter will have to wait.

The NFL takes some getting used to. Former Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald is already one of the league’s best coaches, winning a Super Bowl in his second year in Seattle. But in Year 1 the Seahawks’ record improved by just one win over the previous season, and they missed the playoffs.

Only two first-time head coaches in league history have won a Super Bowl. George Seifert, whom the San Francisco 49ers promoted from defensive coordinator to head coach in 1989 after the legendary Bill Walsh moved to the front office, was the most recent. Led by quarterback Joe Montana, Seifert’s 49ers went 14-2 and repeated as Super Bowl champions.

Two decades earlier, in 1970, coach Don McCafferty and quarterback Johnny Unitas powered the Baltimore Colts to an 11-2-1 record and a win in Super Bowl V over the Dallas Cowboys. McCafferty had been promoted to replace the also-legendary Don Shula, who left to coach the Miami Dolphins.

2. Coaching experience matters.

Until you’ve coached at the NFL level, it’s impossible to know what you don’t know. And there are a handful of first-timers on the Ravens’ staff.

Minter has never been a head coach, not even at the college level. Offensive coordinator Declan Doyle has never been a full-time play-caller. Anthony Weaver has never been a non-play-calling defensive coordinator. Anthony Levine Sr. has never been a special teams coordinator, only an assistant special teams coach.

That inexperience extends to the Ravens’ position coaches. Defensive line coach Lou Esposito, outside linebackers coach Harland Bower, pass game coordinator and secondary coach Mike Mickens and safeties coach PJ Volker have never coached at the NFL level.

Football is football, whether it’s played with 18-year-olds or 34-year-olds. But there will be growing pains as Minter navigates the demands of being a head coach, Doyle tries to find his rhythm as a play-caller and other coaches adjust to new roles and new expectations.

3. Their defense’s big-money stars might not play like it.

The Ravens are paying a handful of big-name defenders big money and hoping for big returns. But what if they don’t move the needle?

Inside linebacker Roquan Smith has a $32.7 million salary cap hit, or 10.4% of the team’s 2026 cap. But he struggled with a hamstring injury early last year, missed a couple of key open-field tackles and turned 29 in April. Public perception of his 2025 performance soured so quickly that some Ravens fans wondered why the four-time Pro Bowl pick wasn’t cut this offseason.

Defensive lineman Nnamdi Madubuike has a $29.9 million cap hit (9.5% of the cap). But he missed all but two games last season with a neck injury, underwent an offseason operation to salvage his career and didn’t practice in team drills during his month in training camp. It’s unclear how realistic a sustained return to greatness is.

Cornerback Marlon Humphrey has a $26.3 million cap hit (8.4% of the cap). But he’s coming off the worst season of his career, a campaign that he acknowledged was limited by a nagging injury. Humphrey, who turned 30 in July, played almost exclusively in camp at outside cornerback, where the NFL’s best athletes will challenge his diminished athleticism.

And outside linebacker Trey Hendrickson has a $15 million cap hit (4.8% of the cap). He played just seven games for the Cincinnati Bengals last season, his fewest since 2018, after missing time with hip and back injuries and undergoing season-ending core muscle surgery. Edge rushers tend to decline quickly in their 30s; Hendrickson turns 32 in December.

4. Their offensive line is still a question mark.

Over the offseason, the Ravens traded two question marks at guard for a question mark at center. And it might not be long before they find out how weak that link is.

Over the first four weeks of the season, Ravens centers Jovaughn Gwyn and/or Ethan Pocic will face three of the NFL’s 11 highest-paid interior defensive linemen: the Indianapolis Colts’ DeForest Buckner (Week 1), the Dallas Cowboys’ Quinnen Williams (Week 3) and the Tennessee Titans’ Jeffery Simmons (Week 4).

They’ll have help, of course, from left guard John Simpson, who signed a three-year, $30 million deal in March, and rookie right guard Vega Ioane, a first-round pick. But fans saw the Ravens’ struggles last year as a byproduct of offensive line neglect, rooted in a trust (perhaps misplaced) that Jackson’s superpowers could lift average pieces into quality starters. Even with a Pro Bowl center in Tyler Linderbaum and two above-average starters in tackles Ronnie Stanley and Roger Rosengarten, the Ravens finished only 16th in Pro Football Focus’ year-end offensive line rankings.

Dwayne Ledford, one of the NFL’s best offensive line coaches, should raise the unit’s floor. But the team’s depth behind its starters is largely unproven. And, if the Ravens’ issues at center extend to presnap operations, Jackson could be exposed to dangerous hits.

5. Their receiving options are thin.

In Zay Flowers, the Ravens finally have a franchise wide receiver. The pass game weapons around him, however, are more in doubt.

Wide receiver Rashod Bateman is coming off a 19-catch, 224-yard campaign and has just one season with over 550 receiving yards in his five years in Baltimore. Legal troubles could also hang over him indefinitely; general manager Eric DeCosta on Wednesday called them “a little bit of a distraction.”

Rookie Ja’Kobi Lane was the Ravens’ most productive and impressive target throughout camp, but he could struggle with the physicality of NFL cornerbacks. Only 11 wide receivers taken in the third round or later since 2010 have finished with at least 700 receiving yards as a rookie.

Devontez Walker, LaJohntay Wester and rookie Elijah Sarratt round out the receiver room, but none regularly flashed playmaking potential in camp.

The tight end room could be on shakier ground. Mark Andrews had a career-low 422 receiving yards on a career-low 8.8 yards per catch last season. His longest catch of the year (27 yards) was shorter than his longest run (35 yards). It’s unclear how Andrews, who developed a connection with Jackson based on their shared feel for space and leverage, will fit in an offense with more rigorous rules for receivers.

Behind him are Durham Smythe, primarily a blocking tight end, and two rookies. Matt Hibner and Josh Cuevas are athletic prospects with room to grow as receivers, but neither topped 450 receiving yards in a single season at the Football Bowl Subdivision level.

The Ravens will either need Flowers to level up again or more help to emerge. The Seahawks had a top-heavy passing game last year, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba had a generational season as a wide receiver. Wideout Cooper Kupp and tight end AJ Barner both finished with over 500 receiving yards, too.

6. Their kicking situation could be a nightmare.

The Ravens’ 2025 season ended with a missed field goal. Eight months later, their starting kicker hasn’t changed. Neither have the fears about another devastating miss.

Tyler Loop’s missed 44-yarder as time expired in the Ravens’ Week 18 road loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers has reverberated throughout the offseason and preseason. Inside the Ravens’ fanbase, every perfect day in camp was received skeptically. Every preseason miss was seen as a referendum on Loop’s job security.

And it could be slipping. After going 5-for-8 in three preseason games, Loop had company at practice last week. The Ravens signed kicker Jake Moody to their practice squad, adding an insurance policy if Loop falters.

Even if he proves himself reliable in the early going, an uncertainty will linger with every high-leverage kick. And, if that unease trickles down to Loop, the Ravens could be at a disadvantage in every close game.

7. Injuries are always a risk.

Injuries decimated the Ravens at times last year, but their health woes could have been worse. Much worse.

According to FTN, the Ravens had only the 15th-most “adjusted games lost” in 2025, a metric that measures how often a team’s starters and other important players are missing games or playing at less than 100%. The Ravens ranked fourth best on offense and third worst on defense.

Last season, the problem in Baltimore wasn’t so much the volume of injuries as it was the quality of players lost to or limited by them:

• Safety Ar’Darius Washington tore his Achilles tendon in May and, after returning in December, struggled in coverage.
• Madubuike played just two games before suffering his season-ending neck injury.
• Jackson missed four games, couldn’t finish another and said he was fully healthy for only about three games overall.
• Humphrey played through what he said was a lingering injury.
• Bateman missed two games with a high-ankle sprain, which tends to linger for over a month.
• Tight end Isaiah Likely missed the Ravens’ first three games with a broken foot and never looked especially explosive after returning.
• Fullback Patrick Ricard missed six games with a calf injury.
• Outside linebacker Tavius Robinson missed seven games with a foot injury.
• Cornerback Jaire Alexander struggled to play confidently on his surgically repaired knee and appeared in just two games.

Try as they might, the Ravens can’t avoid injuries. They’ve already lost center Danny Pinter to a season-ending torn patellar tendon. And a handful of stars on the roster have injury histories that could put them at further risk.

Jackson dealt with a string of lower-body injuries last year and is one of the NFL’s lighter quarterbacks. Flowers is small for the position, too. Running back Derrick Henry has been nearly indestructible over his career, but at 32, his age makes him more vulnerable than ever. Madubuike is returning from a neck injury that nearly ended his career. Hendrickson suffered hip and back injuries last year before undergoing season-ending core muscle surgery. And Humphrey has dealt with a string of minor injuries over the past three seasons.

8. The Los Angeles Rams exist.

The Rams were already Super Bowl favorites before they re-signed defensive lineman Aaron Donald, one of the NFL’s greatest-ever defenders. Now, according to DraftKings, their implied odds of winning the Super Bowl are about 16.7%, far and away the best in the league.

In recent decades, superteam respect has rarely translated into superteam results. According to Yahoo Sports, none of the past 20 Super Bowl favorites with identical or better preseason odds went on to win a title.

But on paper, anyway, the Rams are the colossus awaiting the AFC’s last team standing. The Ravens know how good Myles Garrett is. They know how good Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua are. A handful of veterans will no doubt remember how good Donald was. Now they’re all playing for the same team, led by Sean McVay, one of the NFL’s best coaches. It could take something special to beat them.

9. The AFC is deep and dangerous.

No, there aren’t any obvious superteams in the AFC. But it’s hard to imagine a pretender sneaking into the playoff field this season.

Elite defenses? The Houston Texans could have the NFL’s best, powered by a devastating front and take-no-prisoners attitude. The Denver Broncos topped the NFL in sacks last year and have maybe the league’s best cornerback, Patrick Surtain II. The Jacksonville Jaguars had a top-five defense over the second half of last season and will add a fully operational Travis Hunter to their secondary. The Steelers have one of the league’s best defensive fronts.

Elite offenses? The Buffalo Bills’ Josh Allen has piloted them before without much receiver talent; now he has DJ Moore to target out wide. The New England Patriots’ Drake Maye, the runner-up in NFL Most Valuable Player voting last year, got an upgraded receiving corps and offensive line. The Los Angeles Chargers’ Justin Herbert has never had an offensive coordinator as creative as Mike McDaniel. The Bengals might finally have an offensive line that can reliably protect Joe Burrow. Trevor Lawrence could take another step forward in Year 2 in Jacksonville under coach Liam Cohen. Oh, and the Kansas City Chiefs still have Patrick Mahomes, somehow back from a season-ending knee injury and healthy enough to start Week 1.

The AFC’s best résumé will belong to the team that can impose its will on both sides of the ball. And that crowd of potential contenders isn’t thin.

10. They haven’t done it yet.

A new coach can change only so much. Minter can’t change what’s happened. And what’s happened is a record of underperformance carried on long enough that it might have its own momentum.

Jackson is 3-5 in the playoffs, but three of his past four starts were good enough — or should have been good enough — to win. There was the four-touchdown night in a divisional-round blowout of the Texans in 2023; a two-touchdown, 76.2% accuracy performance in a comfortable 2024 victory over the Steelers in the wild-card round; and a two-touchdown, 293-yard outing in a backbreaking loss to the Bills a week later.

Turnovers have been his bugaboo. Jackson lost a fumble and threw an interception in the Ravens’ 2023 AFC championship game loss to the Chiefs. In the divisional round against Buffalo, he had another lost fumble and threw another interception. (A bobbled pass by Andrews in the final minutes, costing the Ravens a game-tying 2-point conversion, didn’t help matters, either.)

But the defense has dropped the ball, too. The Ravens didn’t force a turnover in 2023 or 2024, a span of four games. Their last takeaway came in a 2022 wild-card-round loss to the Bengals, a game Jackson didn’t start because of injury.

Minter’s arrival won’t wipe the Ravens’ slate clean. A return to the playoffs would only prompt questions about their shortcomings in prior trips, and the memories would come flooding back. But Minter’s aim is to have the Ravens performing at their best when their best is needed. They couldn’t get there over Harbaugh’s final stretch in Baltimore. It could take time.