Arms on the Farm: Breaking down fast-moving Orioles pitching prospect Joseph Dzierwa

When Arms on the Farm was born in 2023, the Orioles had a stable of homegrown hitting talent both in Baltimore and in the minors, and the ability to build the same thing on the mound felt like the last piece to their rebuild puzzle.

Only the first part has changed; they’re trying to find their way back to contention at the major league level and, while closer, are still waiting for all the work put into developing the next wave of homegrown starting pitching to come good.

With Brandon Young a key part of the rotation and Trey Gibson showing he can contribute when called upon, this is the beginning of a long and potentially productive era of homegrown pitching for the Orioles. This is Year 4 of Arms on the Farm, which uses firsthand observation, data analysis and insights from the pitchers and their coaches, along with opinions from professional scouts who cover the Orioles to provide as much information as possible about these prospects.

The first installment this year is left-hander Joseph Dzierwa, who isn’t even a year out from being drafted but is already one of the best pitchers in the system.

Where did he come from?

Dzierwa was more than just a star pitcher at Otsego High, outside Toledo, Ohio — he was an all-state quarterback who also played shooting guard on the basketball team. There aren’t a lot of 6-foot-8 lefties out there, though, so baseball seemed a sensible path. His took him to Michigan State, where he spent three years in the rotation.

Dzierwa had a 1.82 ERA and 10.4 strikeouts per nine with a 0.83 WHIP in 118 2/3 innings as a junior, and when the Orioles took him 58th overall last year and signed him to a $1.5 million bonus, he became the highest pitcher drafted by the club since 2018.

What do the numbers say?

At this early stage, they say Dzierwa hasn’t missed a beat transitioning to pro ball. He didn’t pitch after last year’s draft, instead going to Sarasota for the club’s draft camp to get stronger. He skipped Low-A Delmarva entirely and made quick work of High-A Frederick, with a 2.21 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, and 11.1 strikeouts per nine in 40 2/3 innings over eight starts. He’s pitched three times at Double-A Chesapeake with a 3.24 ERA and 23 strikeouts in 16 2/3 innings.

He’s among the leaders in the minors in several categories, including strikeouts (73) and FIP (2.37), where he’s second in each, while his 0.84 WHIP is third-best. At 16.1% his swinging strike rate is 13th among minor league pitchers with at least 40 innings, and tops in the Orioles’ system.

What does he throw?

Dzierwa came out of Michigan State with two clear plus pitches — his four-seamer and his changeup. When we spoke after a start in early May, some of his coaches were in the room and looked at Dzierwa quizzically when he said he thought his fastball, which has held firm in the 93-95 mph range this year, was straight and flat.

Pitching coach Jordie Henry later told me with a laugh that “whatever he’s seeing visually is obviously not correct.”

Henry attributed the fastball’s effectiveness to Dzierwa’s loose, effortless arm action and the ride-run effect it has, where the ball both carries and runs toward the pitcher’s arm-side.

“Guys don’t pick it up, especially from a lefty,” Henry said. “That’s always tough. It’s just one of those naturally gifted heaters.”

Dzierwa is able to locate the pitch to all quadrants of the strike zone, and when teams stack righties against him, they get a heavy dose of his mid-80s changeup — a pitch that wasn’t at its best this year even as he was dominating the South Atlantic League.

That’s because he was putting a lot of effort into developing his new gyro slider after scrapping the bigger breaking ball and cutter he used in college. That pitch, which is in the 85-87 mph range, is an emerging weapon.

“At first, they were making me throw it a ton and I was like, ‘This pitch ain’t good,’” he said. “But once you start punching guys out, you get a little more confidence.”

Henry said simply being able to locate the pitch back-door and back-foot to righties and then low-and-away to lefties has been an asset for Dzierwa, given how effective the pitch can be in those spaces. Righties who expect a fastball or changeup will give up on the pitch if it looks like it’ll be outside, allowing Dzierwa to steal strikes on the outside edge. It’s early, and the pitch is still a clear third behind the other two, but it’s already fulfilling the forecast an evaluator with another club passed along after the draft.

“Get him a hard breaking ball that can go along with his stuff, pitch design the shit out of him, he’s going to be really good,” he said. “If he ends up learning spin, you’re going to win — big time.”

What does the future hold?

A challenge, perhaps? When Henry — who was at Chesapeake last year — watched Dzierwa in spring training, he felt confident that the command was already at the Double-A level. Once Dzierwa proved that in High-A, the Orioles moved him on faster than they have a pitcher in his position ever before.

Right-hander Braxton Bragg made just three starts in High-A last year, but that was after he spent all of 2024 in Low-A Delmarva because there was no space for him to move up. It’s not uncommon for first-year college pitchers to start in High-A — recent examples include Trace Bright, Zach Fruit and Levi Wells — but none were in Double-A in May.

That alone tells you that Dzierwa is in a class of his own in this system. Even a lower-quality left-handed fastball that’s commanded well can carry a pitcher through the low minors, but where the intrigue lays with Dzierwa is how quickly he’s building on that.

He said his “low-hanging fruit” after getting drafted was his strength, and considering his fastball is a bit firmer this year, there’s progress being made on that end. His ability to have a working slider at this early stage of his pro career opens the possibility of adding different shapes as the year progresses, with the cutter or a two-seam fastball possibilities. That he lost some changeup quality while working on his slider and was able to quickly correct that this season speaks to how he works and makes adjustments, and how he’s ended up in Double-A this quickly speaks to his disposition, Henry said.

“He’s a competitor,” he said. “It doesn’t matter what environment he’s in, he’s going to go out there and be a good pitcher.”

A handful of pitchers — Wells, Gibson and Nestor German among them — started at High-A and ended in Triple-A last year, but all three were in their second professional season rather than their first.

If Dzierwa doesn’t match that feat, quality probably won’t be the consideration. He’ll be managing a six-month season for the first time, and the sooner he gets to Triple-A, the more crowded the rotation conversation gets there — to say nothing of what’s already in place in Baltimore.

What’s clear now, though, is this is the kind of pitcher the Orioles haven’t boasted in a while. There have been extremely talented lefties like DL Hall and command and pitchability types like Zac Lowther and Alexander Wells, but few in between. There’s a long way to go, and a lot of levels between Dzierwa and the big leagues, but if you’ve ever found yourself wondering what Trevor Rogers would look like if he struck more batters out, this might be your answer.