Jon Meoli: A change in philosophy jump-started the O’s pitching development just in time

Lose as badly — and as sadly — as the Orioles did in the first part of this month, and every small problem feels bigger. They can’t score runs because of how they hit. They can’t pitch well because they haven’t developed pitching. And if none of this is working now, how can it ever work going forward?

All it takes is a little winning for the green shoots to pop up, though. And one in particular feels like it could grow into a meaningful part of the Orioles’ future: Their homegrown pitchers are helping out, and this is only the beginning.

Trey Gibson’s home debut — 5 2/3 innings of one-run ball — came in the same turn through the rotation as a scoreless outing from Brandon Young, another undrafted pitcher the Orioles brought through the minors.

The pitching wave Gibson is at the forefront of may change the way we talk about this organization’s ability to grow starting pitchers. His first home start not only signals that that shift is underway, but comes at a time when this team needs it most to keep its late-month revival intact.

You can develop all you want down on the farm, but executing pitches there is different than winning up here. Young said that was his biggest lesson from going through what Gibson is going through now, this time last year, when he was shuttling between Baltimore and Norfolk after making his debut.

“It’s crazy because you just work on stuff and you’re developing and in Triple-A, it’s like, ‘Can you get really good hitters out?’ Then up here, winning is the only thing that matters,” Young said. “It doesn’t matter if you’re not feeling good that day, if you’re feeling great, if you’re throwing 90 or 100. The job is to win and you have to compete.”

Gibson, the Orioles’ top pitching prospect, was able to do that Wednesday. He dealt with traffic often, needing double plays in the first and fifth innings and stranding three runners in the fourth. But right until his last batter — an 11-pitch battle with Ryan Vilade that he won with a groundout — Gibson didn’t fold and came away with his first big league win.

Part of that comes down to his sheer talent. He struck out just one but used all five of his pitches — two- and four-seam fastballs plus a slider, cutter and curveball — to keep the Rays guessing and keep the Orioles’ growing lead intact.

His ability to miss bats at every level of the minors, along with his improving command profile, made the 2023 undrafted free agent last year’s organizational pitcher of the year and the most promising of a group of pitchers from that year’s amateur haul that the Orioles’ front office has high hopes for.

Gibson, Nestor German and Levi Wells all made strong impressions in spring training and left major league camp with the expectation that they’d help the team in some capacity this year. At Double-A Chesapeake, lefties Luis De León and Joseph Dzierwa are impressing with every start.

The Orioles have had times when it seemed they had enough pitching prospects on the horizon to hit on some, only for the results to fall short. If this is different, it will be because of how different things are under the hood. They’ve refined their process for identifying amateur pitchers with traits they think they can scale and enhance, and are dedicating more draft capital toward pitchers with each passing year. Where they once pursued specific pitch types and shapes, their assessments have become more holistic, focusing on pitch mix, command profile, arm action, movement and athleticism. That’s led to smoother development, with more boxes already checked early in the process.

With the major league staff of Drew French, Mitch Plassmeyer and Ryan Klimek helping set the agenda for what it takes to succeed with the big league team, the minor league group under Forrest Herrmann is moving players along methodically through the farm and added former Orioles pitcher Thomas Eshelman as upper-level coordinator to lessen the adjustments required for pitchers like Gibson as they jump from Triple-A to the big leagues. Manager Craig Albernaz said he’s cognizant that going back and forth like Gibson is doing is “extremely difficult,” and that he and his staff try to overcommunicate to ensure smooth transitions.

Like everything with the Orioles over the last year, these are meant to be long-term change drivers that are coming into focus now because of the circumstances of the major league team. Young’s rotation spot feels secure, what with his 3.47 ERA and improved performances of late, even if there’s some regression potential rumbling under the hood.

Gibson may just be visiting Baltimore as a fill-in given the Orioles needed a starter after Sunday’s doubleheader, but depending on the form of Trevor Rogers and Chris Bassitt, he’s certainly not going to be far from anyone’s mind when it comes to potential upgrades to the Orioles’ rotation.

It means something that the Orioles can call on a homegrown pitcher to help win in times like these. This season always felt to me like one where we’d start to see that happen, but the value of that felt more long-term than immediate. It turns out they need it now. It’s happening already.

“I’ve been really outspoken — in a good way — with how the pitching development and pitching department works through the minors and up here,” Gibson said. “I owe a lot of credit to especially Forrest Herrmann, Jordie Henry from my time in Double-A and High-A —those guys are really special. I like to call them wizards of pitching because the information they know is pretty incredible. I think they also do a really good job of knowing how to implement that for guys. I’ve got all good things to say about the pitching development in the org.”