Jon Meoli: If the Orioles even give Mike Elias a trade deadline choice, buying is the only one

Mike Elias has watched his team lose three times since he backed them to get on track and declared his intention to add to the roster at the early-August trade deadline.

The Orioles’ president of baseball operations said Saturday that he really hoped the club would be buyers, and the next five weeks are going to be when we find out how much hope is really worth to a man who, for much of his nearly eight years in charge of the team, hasn’t let anything like that into his decision-making process.

His team will have to cooperate and clean up its act for that deadline path to become reality. If they do, though, the only option that makes sense is for Elias to follow through and give this team every chance to get to the playoffs.

Not to save his job. Not to keep fans happy. He must because he can. And here’s hoping he has more than, well, hope to drive that decision.

We’re more than a year out from the dismissal of former manager Brandon Hyde, which prompted Elias to promise to evaluate everything the Orioles do. At the end of last season, he declared that it’s imperative to adapt and evolve. He’s done so when asked, opening the baseball operations department to new voices, such as manager Craig Albernaz, and old ones, such as Cal Ripken Jr.

Think of how differently Elias handled last offseason — trading boatloads of future value for Taylor Ward, Shane Baz and Blaze Alexander, and signing marquee free agent first baseman Pete Alonso, closer Ryan Helsley and starter Chris Bassitt. Now think of how much worse this team would be if he hadn’t started operating as if he ran a well-resourced club that, with the backing of owners David Rubenstein and Michael Arougheti, wasn’t making decisions with the same long-term sustainability in mind that informed everything that came before.

All offseason long, I heard from people in the organization that things felt different, that they weren’t going to happen the same way they always had. It turned out to be true. It’s hard to ignore the inconsistencies that have dragged the Orioles back down to eight games under .500 — the same as they were after the sweep at Tampa Bay that felt like a nadir in mid-May.

It’s created a tenuous situation. The Orioles’ playoff odds, according to FanGraphs, are at 18.4% after Monday’s loss. The odds were 2.7% on July 31, 2022, before Elias decided to trade Trey Mancini and Jorge López from a .500 club. With a trio of pending free agents who could yield real returns at the deadline — Ward, Helsley and Trevor Rogers — the Orioles are prepared to be sellers, too.

I suppose the question is where that line is this time around. I’d argue it should be lower than people think, and a large part of that is how this edition of the Orioles was built in the first place. A lot of those aforementioned offseason moves helped the Orioles improve in 2026 with the understanding that there was a lot of risk down the road, be it in what the club gave up in trades or in what it committed to paying past a player’s prime.

They did it anyway because there was really no choice but to support Albernaz, a first-year manager, and get the Orioles back to contention after a disastrous 2025 season. Yes, I understand the sunk-cost fallacy. But I can’t help but wonder why the new rules of engagement would change if the Orioles truly believe in this group and in what Albernaz is trying to build with it.

Albernaz said before Monday’s game that with the All-Star break and trade deadline approaching, “you’re getting to the point where you can kind of see the horizon.” After a third straight loss, he said the hope was that his players would feel less pressure after Elias’ comments Saturday but acknowledged the “noise” that comes with this time of year.

It sure sounded to me like the man who will make the decisions for this team wants to support it and is almost desperate for his vision for the club to work out so he has a reason to do so.

He might not have a winning club in the majors, but in so many ways he has the healthy organization he set out to build, which means there are dozens of prospects on the farm who can eventually help the Orioles or be shipped out in trades for players who can help now.

This is not what Elias would have done in past years. We know that because in 2023 and 2024, the trade deadlines were measured and meant to consolidate the team’s position rather than truly enhance it. There were merits in doing so, and the Orioles still have no playoff wins to show for it.

So now we find out the extent of the adapting and evolving. Does it extend to a trade window that is pricey for acquiring teams and even more costly for clubs that add players but don’t make the playoffs anyway? Is there a place for hope when the team on the field isn’t exactly inspiring it?

It’s a big assumption to speak about a 39-47 club as one where a trade deadline decision will even exist. If there is one, it seems Elias only has one option.