Jon Meoli: Pete Alonso’s ‘coin-flip theory’ explains his approach to hitting — and the Orioles slugger’s recent success

Pete Alonso called it the coin-flip theory.

It was April 28 at Camden Yards, and as it would happen, he was about to heat up. His first-inning home run Wednesday was his fourth in nine games since he shared this insight, and he has pulled his OPS up from .637 to .780 in that span.

This is the production the Orioles were expecting when they signed him for five years and $155 million in December, and for much of April it wasn’t what they were getting. But he knew he was flipping the coin and, eventually, the outcomes he wanted were coming.

“You flip a coin 10 times and it all lands on heads, it doesn’t change the odds of it still being tails,” he told me. “So I think for me, over the course of the season, you have 700-plus at-bats, God willing, if I’m healthy. Think about it. …

“My version of flipping the coin is hitting the ball hard. Hitting the ball hard, big part of the field, and it’s just having quality at-bats. If I go up there, if I walk or hit the ball hard, that’s me flipping the coin, and if it doesn’t land heads or tails, whichever I’m hoping for, that doesn’t change what I’m going to do the next at-bat. So, over the course of time, the more times you flip it, then the odds, you’re splitting hairs at the percentages.”

Alonso signed his massive deal on the heels of a unique season in New York. He had 38 home runs, ensuring that every 162-game season of his career featured at least 30. But those home runs weren’t concentrated to the pull side, as they were in previous seasons. He was hitting home runs to all parts of the field, and with a spike in his hard-hit rate, he ended up having one of the best overall offensive seasons of his career.

But for any big league hitter, pulling the ball in the air is the surest way to slug. Alonso himself acknowledged that, for him, “those kind of leave the yard,” but they hadn’t been happening as much this year. When we spoke, he was pulling the ball in the air 12% of the time, a career low. That had crept up to 13.7% entering Wednesday, but Alonso was flipping the coin all the same — hitting the ball hard and getting on base. The outcomes have started to even out.

“The biggest focus and a big strength of mine is, yeah, I can do that, but I think if I can stay up the middle, right-center, I’ve always been able to do that really well,” he said. “The biggest thing is having good at-bats consistently. Hit it hard enough consistently and start getting on base enough, it’s going to fall.”

Alonso’s steadfast approach is certainly paying off, and as he’s been heating up, it made sense to me.

He is, to borrow his phrase, flipping the coin often this year. He entered Wednesday with 54 hard-hit balls and 21 walks, accounting for 48% of his 155 plate appearances. That was 11th best in baseball among all qualifiers, and the list of players above him includes some of the league’s most feared hitters at the moment.

New York’s Trent Grisham is first, followed by fellow Yankee Ben Rice and Houston’s Yordan Alvarez. Others above him include Chicago slugger Munetaka Murakami, Atlanta’s Michael Harris Jr. and future Hall of Famer Mike Trout.

Notably, Alonso is flipping the proverbial coin more often than he ever has. Last season, hard-hit balls and walks accounted for the highest percentage of his plate appearances of any in his career (44.7%), with his previous high coming in 2021 with 41.9%.

That this approach carried him to his best offensive season to date in 2025 lends it plenty of credibility when forecasting whether the Alonso we’ve seen over the last week-plus will be the one who persists over the next five months. He had nine extra-base hits in the first 28 games of the season and now has eight in his last nine.

Pulling the ball in the air would certainly help, and Alonso has shown of late that part of his game is coming back.

“For me, when I’m going right, I’m still in the middle, and if I’m hitting the ball in the air it’s just a slight bit out front,” he said. “And if I’m pulling the ball in the air, it’s probably a homer or a double, and it’s just a happy accident.”

That’s not the kind of accident the Orioles have trafficked in the last couple of years. They would certainly welcome this type.