Jon Meoli: What I’m hearing about the Orioles’ general manager search

Any relief that could possibly come with the merciful conclusion of this Orioles season proved fleeting.

The more we learn about the team and its struggle to get on track, the more frustrating it is. Watching a week’s worth of playoff baseball has only reinforced the idea that the Orioles may have been tantalizingly close to joining the fun but miles off from a level that would allow them to advance very far.

Add in the massive negative reaction to Jim Palmer’s podcast anecdote about his advice to manager Craig Albernaz regarding Colton Cowser being left on read, plus this week’s workforce reduction, and there’s no getting around that things feel grim around the Orioles.

To call it an overreaction would be overly dismissive. I’d just say it’s a reaction that’s been building for months and could only really be let out once things were truly finished, and the state of the Orioles isn’t as bad as you’d think.

A lot, however, needs to get better. As I look out at the offseason landscape, I’m struck by how scant the opportunities are for that improvement to happen. That makes the Orioles’ hiring of a general manager to work under president of baseball operations Mike Elias perhaps the more impactful thing they’ll do this winter.

That has just as much to do with my expectations for the rest of the offseason agenda as it does with the selection itself. The Orioles are ramping up interviews for that role this week, and given the vacancies in their front office, my understanding is the candidate set includes up-and-coming player development leaders from other organizations who would be brought in to help reinforce Albernaz’s agenda of raising the standard we heard so much about at the end of the season.

That’s not exclusively the demographic the Orioles are interviewing, though. At least one candidate in the mix has both major league playing and executive experience in numerous roles, which would give Elias a seasoned operator who can help steady the ship in a number of areas.

The relative diversity of the candidate pool speaks to the number of directions they could go in — and it’s not impossible they could end up hiring more than one executive depending on the titles available to give out. That would probably be the best of both worlds, adding both a seasoned front office operator with meaningful playing and leadership experience plus a player development leader to work a rung below him. But whatever route Elias and the Orioles’ ownership group choose will speak volumes about what matters.

If the need is truly for a fresh perspective across player development and the candidate chosen comes from an organization that has more consistently produced quality major league talent, it shouldn’t matter whether that person’s a former player or former facility instructor, or looks 15 years old or 50. And if they want a more traditional GM to help implement the changes Elias and Albernaz see fit, they should choose one for that reason, rather than to check boxes and appease an any part of the fan (and, I suppose, alumni) base.

Whom they choose is probably going to be the first meaningful thing that happens in an offseason that’s hard to forecast. A lockout looms on Dec. 1, leaving about a month after the World Series ends for the Orioles to accomplish what they want to before the entire industry shuts down.

Trevor Rogers’ future will be the first thing addressed with the qualifying offer, and if he declines it, they’ll either need to re-sign him or replace him. Chris Bassitt is set to hit the open market, meaning the Orioles will need to fill two rotation spots. The free agent pitching market is headlined by Tarik Skubal, and there’s a steep drop-off behind him.

It was instructive when Elias was pressed on whether the success of Pete Alonso’s five-year, $155 million contract meant he’d be more inclined to spend like that again. He twice clarified that the Orioles will only do that when they see a player worth it on the market.

I took that to be a clear defense against any expectations that the Orioles would replicate that type of move, lest Elias’ own words be thrown back at him all winter long if they don’t accomplish it.

If anything is going to be replicated from last offseason, it might be something like the Shane Baz trade or the Taylor Ward trade, given the abundance of pitching prospects and high-upside Latin American talent in the organization. The Orioles traded some very good players away last offseason, including the Blaze Alexander deal, but are in a position to make those kinds of sacrifices for the major league team and may find the outfielder they want on another team’s roster.

If none of that sounds particularly exciting, that would explain why the front office additions are front of mind right now. I don’t think this is going to be a dormant offseason for the Orioles, but a realistic view is the 2026 season gave them just as much of a to-do list in terms of internal work as it did external additions. The club has total control over the former and is subject to who is a free agent or made available by another club in the latter. The upside of the 2027 team probably rests within the players and staff under contract at this moment.

I don’t know that a front office hire is going to be ease the collective minds of an agitated fan base either way. Like most things, it will likely reinforce whatever views are already held about the team and its direction.

That doesn’t make it any less important. The Orioles are in a pivotal offseason, without much time to make an impact for 2027. But locking out the players doesn’t stop the work of a front office, and their GM hire is going to have all winter to bring about the change pretty much everyone agrees is desperately needed.