Colton Cowser has ‘anchored’ the otherwise shaky Orioles outfield defense

The home run robberies capture the most attention, and for good reason. They are jaw-dropping plays from Colton Cowser, and during the last homestand, the Orioles outfielder robbed homers in consecutive games.

His impact on the Orioles outfield extends beyond that, however. For a group that has struggled across the board, Cowser is proving himself to be a pivotal piece in center field — the type of player who can steal runs and help a pitching staff.

The Orioles, and especially Cowser, were bullish in their belief that he could handle the responsibilities of an everyday center field role. But given his strong defense in left field earlier in his career — and given that Cedric Mullins long held the center field mantle — there were outside questions as to whether Cowser could be a difference maker up the middle.

Halfway through the season, Cowser owns center field most nights of the week, having taken over for Leody Taveras.

“He’s really come on,” manager Craig Albernaz said. “Like, obviously, him robbing home runs at home, but it’s everything else. Him coming in on the ball, ranging to the gap, his ability with his body, his awareness of when to slide, what type of slides to use, and obviously his arm, too. He’s stepped up and held down center field for us and really anchored our outfield defense.”

Despite how well Cowser has performed on defense this season, the rest of Baltimore’s outfielders are below average.

Several advanced metrics better capture a defender’s impact than fielding percentage, which only docks a player if they’re charged with an error. Taylor Ward in left field, for instance, has a perfect fielding percentage, and yet he is a below-average fielder by the eye test and analytically.

Statcast’s outs above average and fielding run value metrics offer a more complete view of Baltimore’s outfield defense. Outs above average (OAA) measures a defender’s performance by evaluating every fielding opportunity and accounting for each play’s degree of difficulty. If a fly ball has a 25% out probability and the player catches it, he’s awarded .75 for making the play. If he doesn’t, he loses .25.

Fielding run value (FRV) works in a similar way. It measures defensive performance on different scales, such as range and throwing, then marks how far above or below average (0) a player is compared to the rest of the league.

When OAA and FRV agree, it’s a strong indication that a player is performing well or poorly in the field. Cowser, by both accounts, is Baltimore’s best outfielder. It’s not even close.

Cowser has recorded six outs above average and a fielding run value of six. Baltimore’s other outfielders have fared much worse: Ward (-1 OAA, -3 FRV), Tyler O’Neill (-2, -2), Blaze Alexander (-2, -3), Dylan Beavers (-2, -3) and Taveras (-4, -2).

In short, other than Cowser, no Orioles outfielder who has played at least 25 innings has a positive OAA or FRV.

This hasn’t been an easy season for Cowser at the plate. Entering Tuesday’s series opener against the Chicago Cubs, Cowser was hitting .224 with a .681 on-base-plus-slugging percentage (OPS) — although he has performed better since April, with a .766 OPS in his last 53 games.

But regardless of what Cowser brings at the plate, his glove has made a difference since he took over as the primary center fielder in June, with Taveras often shifting to right field.

“It’s something that I’ve really worked on,” Cowser said. “You can contribute out there, even if you’re not contributing at the plate. And so, it’s something I take a lot of pride in.”

Late last month, Cowser robbed homers in consecutive games. Both times, he ranged to right-center field, leaped at the wall and brought the ball back. After the second, right-hander Shane Baz said he was fortunate to have Cowser behind him.

The right-hander threw a challenge fastball in the zone on an 0-2 count, and only got away with it because Cowser is “so good out there,” he said.

“You have a lot of confidence and faith when a ball goes to center and he’s out there. He covers a ton of ground and he’s — don’t tell him I said this — very athletic,” Baz continued.

Cowser has made several catches in the gap over the last week, too. In the ninth inning on July 4, Cowser’s sliding catch in left-center field helped the Orioles secure a victory. Those plays have as much to do with Cowser’s pre-pitch recognition as with any other part of his game.

Cowser studies batters’ tendencies, such as whether they tend to pull the ball, to help anticipate where a hit might go. He can also look for clues from the catcher’s setup to judge whether the pitch is inside or outside, and therefore whether a batter is more likely to pull the ball or hit it to the opposite field.

That helps Cowser get a better first step, which is pivotal to tracking down hard-to-reach balls.

“I think the first jump, regardless of the angle’s necessarily correct, as long as your momentum is going that way in a timely manner, I think you can make it up in closing speed,” he said. “It’s something I feel is important, closing speed. So, not necessarily having to dive for a lot of balls that you might have to if you’re able to have a good first step and good closing speed. I think those are two of the main factors out there.”

That has helped Cowser rank in the 93rd percentile of major leaguers in range, according to OAA. And given the shakiness of Baltimore’s other outfielders, Cowser’s presence in center is only more important.