What we learned from Maryland’s 2026 primary election results

Tuesday’s elections were — mostly — decisive, with winners declared for governor, Congress, county executive and contested State House races. So what did we learn?

A good night for favorites

Everyone loves an underdog story, but few underdogs emerged victorious on Tuesday.

In the most watched David-vs.-Goliath race, sailboat charter captain Bobby LaPin failed to leverage his social media following into a victory over Senate President Bill Ferguson in Baltimore.

Some two dozen candidates threw their hat in the ring for the 5th Congressional District, but it was U.S. Rep. Steny Hoyer’s protege, Del. Adrian Boafo, who prevailed easily.

Other favorites who notched support from establishment Democrats en route to primary victories included Howard County executive candidate Vanessa Atterbeary, who beat two county council members; U.S. Rep. Kweisi Mfume, who held off a generational challenge from Baltimore City Councilman Mark Conway; and U.S. Rep. April McClain Delaney defeated the former congressman for her district, David Trone.

In the governor’s race, it’s Democrat Wes Moore against Republican Dan Cox in a rematch.

Big night for Black candidates

Black candidates won big across the region.

Atterbeary beat two county council members and made history becoming Howard County’s first Black woman county executive.

Boafo talked about the Democratic voters of the 5th Congressional District deciding that it was time to pass the torch to a new generation in his victory speech. After 45 years of Steny Hoyer, his former campaign manager defeated a deep field of candidates. The son of Black African immigrants represents the changing demographics of the district.

Race might as well have been the third candidate in the showdown in Senate District 41 between Malcolm Ruff, who is Black, and Dayla Attar, who is the first Orthodox Jewish woman to ever serve in the state Senate. The district is 63% Black.

In a surprise, Sabrina Tapp-Harper, who is Black, looks to have beat incumbent Sam Cogen. Cogen, who is white, had the support of Moore, Baltimore State’s Attorney Ivan Bates, Maryland Attorney General Anthony Brown and Mfume. Cogen also outpaced Tapp-Harper in donations raised.

Votes still need to be counted, but two Black candidates were also leading in other county executive contests.

Will Jawando was ahead in the race for Montgomery County executive after polls closed Tuesday evening. Julian Jones, who was the once lone Black person on the Baltimore County Council, was leading the field with mail ballots still to count. The winners of both those primaries are heavy favorites to win in November.

Outside money wins

As much as voters always bemoan the special interest money that flows into elections, the reality is that it works.

Super political action committees were active in this year’s Maryland primaries, spending millions on TV ads and mailers. The biggest spenders this year appeared to get the results they wanted.

In the 5th Congressional District, special interests tied to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee and the cryptocurrency industry spent more than $8 million to promote candidate Adrian Boafo, who won the Democratic nomination.

And in the Baltimore area, a super PAC funded by sports gambling companies, spent heavily to defeat Del. Frank Conaway Jr. and former Del. Jay Jalisi. Both were far behind the likely victors in their districts.

The gambling PAC, American Future, also spent to re-elect Democrats, including Ferguson, who cruised to victory in his primary.

Do endorsements matter?

It’s hotly debated.

In the age of MAGA, a Donald Trump endorsement carries real weight. But other politicians, maybe not so much. Still, elected officials love to say they picked a winner, and a lot of them can claim that this year.

Gov. Wes Moore picked several. The governor made hundreds of endorsements, but among the most notable were McClain Delaney over Trone, Atterbeary for Howard County Executive and Del. Malcom Ruff in the 41st District state Senate race.

It wasn’t just Moore who made solid picks.

In the 5th Congressional District, Hoyer’s old stomping grounds, his hand-picked replacement, Boafo, won easily.

In Baltimore city, Mayor Brandon Scott’s pick for sheriff, Sabrina Tapp-Harper, had a sizable lead over incumbent Sam Cogen, who coincidentally was endorsed by Moore.

Social media likes are great, but they aren’t votes

LaPin ran a good campaign.

Losing stings but he ran a lot closer than the polling suggested he would have. This is especially true when you consider the fundraising gap: For every $1 LaPin had, Ferguson had $30. Plus, as senate president and a 16-year incumbent, Ferguson didn’t come from the establishment — he is the establishment.

However LaPin had something Ferguson didn’t. Thanks to his salesmanship and significant following on social media, LaPin was able to reach a large amount of voters.

In interviews, he was confident that it would be sufficient, likening his outreach to similar insurgent campaigns like New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s or Graham Platner’s U.S. Senate bid in Maine.

But as LaPin learned Tuesday night, Instagram likes are nice, but there’s more to politicking than that.