What we learned from Maryland’s 2026 primary election results

Tuesday’s elections were — mostly — decisive, with winners declared for governor, Congress, county executive and contested State House races. So what did we learn?

A good night for favorites

Everyone loves an underdog story, but few underdogs emerged victorious on Tuesday.

In the most-watched David vs. Goliath race, sailboat charter captain Bobby LaPin failed to leverage his social media following into a victory over Senate President Bill Ferguson in Baltimore.

Some two dozen candidates threw their hats in the ring for the 5th Congressional District, but it was U.S. Rep. Steny Hoyer’s protégé, Del. Adrian Boafo, who prevailed easily.

Other favorites who notched support from establishment Democrats en route to primary victories included Howard County executive candidate Vanessa Atterbeary, who beat two County Council members; U.S. Rep. Kweisi Mfume, who held off a generational challenge from Baltimore City Councilman Mark Conway; and U.S. Rep. April McClain Delaney defeated a former congressman, David Trone, for her district.

In the governor’s race, it’s Democrat Wes Moore against Republican Dan Cox in a rematch.

Big night for Black candidates

Black candidates won big across the region.

Atterbeary beat two County Council members and made history, becoming Howard County’s first Black woman county executive.

In his victory speech, Boafo talked about the Democratic voters in the 5th Congressional District deciding that it was time to pass the torch to a new generation. After 45 years of Hoyer, his former campaign manager defeated a deep field of candidates. The son of Black African immigrants represents the changing demographics of the district.

Race was a factor in the showdown in Senate District 41 between Malcolm Ruff, who is Black, and Dalya Attar, who is the first Orthodox Jewish woman to ever serve in the state Senate. The district, which Ruff won, is 63% Black.

In a surprise, Sabrina Tapp-Harper, who is Black, appears to have beaten incumbent Sam Cogen. Cogen, who is white, had the support of Moore, Baltimore State’s Attorney Ivan Bates, Maryland Attorney General Anthony Brown and Mfume. Cogen also outpaced Tapp-Harper in donations raised.

Votes still need to be counted, but two Black candidates were also leading in other county executive contests.

Will Jawando was ahead in the race for Montgomery County executive after polls closed Tuesday evening. Julian Jones, who was once the only Black member of the Baltimore County Council, was leading the field with mail ballots still to be counted. The winners of both primaries are heavy favorites to win in November.

Outside money wins

As much as voters bemoan the special-interest money that flows into elections, the reality is that it works.

Super political action committees were active in this year’s Maryland primaries, spending millions on TV ads and mailers. The biggest spenders this year appeared to get the results they wanted.

In the 5th Congressional District, special interests tied to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee and the cryptocurrency industry spent more than $8 million to promote candidate Adrian Boafo, who won the Democratic nomination.

And in the Baltimore area, a super PAC funded by sports gambling companies spent heavily to defeat Del. Frank Conaway Jr. and former Del. Jay Jalisi. Both were far behind the likely victors in their districts.

The gambling PAC, American Future, also spent to re-elect Democrats, including Ferguson, who cruised to victory in his primary.

Do endorsements matter?

It’s hotly debated.

In the age of MAGA, a Donald Trump endorsement carries real weight. But other politicians, maybe not so much. Still, elected officials love to say they picked a winner, and many of them can claim that this year.

Gov. Wes Moore picked several. The governor made hundreds of endorsements, but among the most notable were McClain Delaney over Trone, Atterbeary for Howard County executive and Ruff in the 41st District state Senate race.

It wasn’t just Moore who made solid picks.

In the 5th Congressional District, Hoyer’s old stomping grounds, his handpicked replacement, Boafo, won easily.

In Baltimore City, Mayor Brandon Scott’s pick for sheriff, Sabrina Tapp-Harper, had a sizable lead over incumbent Sam Cogen, who was also endorsed by Moore.

Social media likes are great, but they aren’t votes

LaPin ran a good campaign.

The loss stings, but he ran much closer than the polls suggested he would. This is especially true when you consider the fundraising gap: For every $1 LaPin had, Ferguson had $30. Plus, as Senate president and a 16-year incumbent, Ferguson didn’t come from the establishment — he is the establishment.

However, LaPin had something Ferguson didn’t. Thanks to his salesmanship and significant following on social media, LaPin was able to reach a large number of voters.

In interviews, he was confident that it would be sufficient, likening his outreach to similar insurgent campaigns, such as New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s campaign or Graham Platner’s U.S. Senate bid in Maine.

But as LaPin learned Tuesday night, Instagram likes are nice, but there’s more to politicking than that.