Voters punish Trump, and the GOP pays across the country

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump repeatedly encouraged voters to pretend he was on the midterm ballot. They did. And it’s hard to imagine a worse outcome for the Republican president and his party.

Voters absolutely punished Trump’s allies almost everywhere. Democrats won in swing states like Georgia, New Hampshire, North Carolina and in Republican strongholds of Iowa, Kansas, Texas and even South Carolina. Trump’s controversial mid-decade redistricting plan appeared to backfire. And Republican losses allowed Democrats to make history in Georgia, where Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms became the first Black woman elected governor in U.S. history, while in Texas, Democrat Gina Hinojosa will become its first Latina governor.

Voters nationwide were in the mood for change, according to The AP Voter Poll, which found that roughly three-quarters of voters feel “angry” or “dissatisfied” with the direction of the country.

Among those who had Trump in mind when they cast their vote, about twice as many wanted to express opposition to the Republican president as those who wanted to support him. Most also blamed the Trump administration for high costs: about 6 in 10 say higher than usual prices are “more because of Trump’s policies.”

Trump’s coalition was also fraying: Young voters and Hispanics appear to have shifted away from the GOP after warming to Trump in 2024.

With undeniable momentum, Democrats were on the verge of winning majorities in the House and Senate, which would curb Trump’s power after he’s faced few limits from a compliant Republican-controlled Congress.

Beyond control of Congress, the extent of these losses could reshape both parties for the next two years at least, as the political world rushes into a new presidential election.

Here are some takeaways from Tuesday’s midterms:

The end of the Trump era may be beginning

Tuesday’s electoral beating appeared to be a direct repudiation of Trump, who demanded loyalty across his party and brought Republicans to the midterms saddled by his dismal approval ratings, an unpopular war with Iran and surging costs for millions of frustrated Americans.

Indeed, Trump’s political strength is hitting a new low roughly two years before his final term ends.

The AP Voter Poll confirms that voters are deeply unhappy with the Republican president, with roughly 6 in 10 saying they disapprove of his job performance. About 70% of voters want Congress to provide more checks and balances on the presidency. And roughly 6 in 10 voters said Trump places a higher priority on his personal interests than the country’s interests.

Trump was betting that his base of white working-class voters — and an increased share of young people and voters of color, which fueled his presidential victory in 2024— could save his Republican allies if they show up in great numbers.

He was wrong.

The AP Voter Poll indicates a substantial shift in young people and Hispanics moving away from Republicans compared to Trump’s victory just two years ago.

Voters under 30 were about evenly split between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024. But in this election, about 7 in 10 voters in that same age group nationally say they supported the Democratic House candidate in their area.

Meanwhile, only about one-third of Hispanic voters say they backed the Republican in their local U.S. House race, while roughly 4 in 10 voted for Trump two years ago. About 6 in 10 Hispanic voters nationally say they voted for the Democratic candidate in their local House race. That’s as about 7 in 10 Hispanic voters say Trump’s policies have worsened economic conditions in the U.S.

Such shifts will echo into the 2028 presidential contest, which unofficially begins on Wednesday.

Democrats winning everywhere and on brink of controlling Congress

Since World War II, the House and Senate have flipped from one party to the other in the same midterm just three times: 1946, 1994 and 2006.

Democrats are on the brink of doing it again in 2026.

They are winning virtually everywhere in a truly historic sweep. Democrats won Senate and governor’s races in Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and Texas — the latter two states Trump carried by 11 and 14 percentage points, respectively.

In North Carolina, Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper won the Senate race. Sen. Jon Ossoff easily won reelection in Georgia, while Lance Bottoms won the Georgia governorship. New Hampshire Democrat Chris Pappas won his Senate race, making him the first openly gay senator. In Ohio, former Sen. Sherrod Brown flipped a GOP-held Senate seat, while former state health official Amy Acton beat close Trump ally Vivek Ramaswamy in the governor’s race.

The Democratic romp continued in Kansas, where voters picked Democrat Adam Hamilton, a first-time candidate who leads the largest United Methodist church in the country, over incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall. And in Texas, long an object of desire for Democrats, 37-year-old state lawmaker James Talarico was elected to the Senate over scandal-plagued Attorney General Ken Paxton, while Hinojosa defeated three-term Gov. Greg Abbott.

The most painful blow for Trump may have come in South Carolina, where his handpicked candidate to replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, his sister Darline Graham, was defeated by Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician making her first run for office.

Republicans currently have a 53-47 advantage in the Senate. To take control, Democrats must win states that Trump won in 2024. Strategists in both parties believe Democrats are on track to win a majority in the House, where Republicans began the current Congress with a slim margin of 220-215.

Democrats are targeting more than 60 House districts, including many where Trump won by double digits.

The Democratic brand still needs work

While Trump’s standing has cratered in 2026, Democrats’ brand as a whole isn’t much to brag about. That leaves the party’s major factions — the progressive left flank and the liberal-to-moderate establishment — parsing Tuesday’s outcomes to claim any advantage in Democrats’ tug-of-war over party identity.

The party’s moderate wing was having a good night early on as high-profile leaders like Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Maryland Gov. Wes Moore won reelection. Both are considered 2028 presidential prospects.

At the same time, Florida Democrat Angie Nixon, the only self-identified democratic socialist on a Senate ballot, was defeated, despite a much stronger-than-expected showing.

Still, the progressive movement would have a feather in its cap if Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed defeats Republican Mike Rogers. El-Sayed is progressives’ highest-profile candidate, though he is not a DSA member or backed by the organization.

It’s one thing for New Yorkers to elect Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist, as mayor. It’s quite another for an unabashed progressive like El-Sayed to carry a perennial battleground state that helped elect Trump twice.

The Democratic brand needs help no matter how well the party does on Tuesday.

The AP Voter Poll shows that about half of voters have a “very” or “somewhat” unfavorable opinion of the Democratic Party, while about 6 in 10 view the GOP negatively.

Trump’s gerrymandering may backfire

Trump set off a tempest in Texas last year when he pushed the most populous Republican-run state to redraw congressional boundaries. California Gov. Gavin Newsom answered by persuading his state’s voters to respond in kind. Democratic and Republican states followed. Along the way, the U.S. Supreme Court gutted part of the Voting Rights Act, allowing several Southern states to redraw districts that had been majority- or near-majority-Black.

However, the Trump-backed gerrymandering push is not going as planned for Republicans. On paper, the results suggest a net shift of nine seats to Republicans. But the gerrymandering meant spreading conservative supporters across more districts.

That’s bad news for Republicans in other districts in Florida and potentially in Texas — states where the Republican plan counted on getting votes from Latino voters and other nonwhites who backed Trump in 2024. Early results show that has not happened.

In Florida, Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz won the state’s 25th District; Democrat Pia Dandiya, a first-time candidate, won the 22nd District and Rep. Kathy Castor won reelection in the 14th District. Republicans had redrawn all three districts this spring with the intent of ensuring GOP victories this fall.