An insider’s guide to watching Maryland’s 2026 primary results

Tuesday is primary election day in heavily Democratic, very gerrymandered Maryland, which means for many races it’s effectively the general election.

And there are some high stakes in key contests around the Old Line State.

Whether it’s Gov. Wes Moore riding a $7 million steamroller to reelection, Maryland Senate President Bill Ferguson’s dogfight with a social media influencer, or a slew of congressional primaries, we’ve got you covered on what to look out for tomorrow.

For info on every race, check out The Banner’s voter guide.

Ferguson vs. LaPin: A fight for Baltimore

State House races don’t usually attract this much attention.

As one of the most powerful Democrats in Maryland, Bill Ferguson should be a shoo-in for reelection. He’s got money, influence, powerful friends and a 16-year record in his district.

But Ferguson’s got baggage. He’s spent the last few years stymieing progressives, who make up a significant portion of his district’s voters. His opposition to redistricting generated scorn — one national outlet called him “the most hated Democrat in America.”

His opponent, Bobby LaPin, the charter boat captain-cum-social media influencer, has been a pain in Ferguson’s behind for months. What LaPin lacks in money and professional politicking he makes up for by being popular on the internet, and he uses his platform to dig at Ferguson nonstop.

LaPin has called Ferguson a creature of corporate politics. He has questioned Ferguson’s record in Annapolis. LaPin is such a dedicated hater he even made a video saying that Ferguson is out of touch because he paid extra for yard signs with metal grommets. Seriously.

LaPin represents the populist wing of the Democratic Party. Ferguson is the establishment, and as Senate president, he is able to secure a lot of cash for Baltimore.

If LaPin wins (both campaigns have polls showing their candidate way ahead), it will significantly curtail the city’s influence in Annapolis.

Who wants to lose to Wes Moore?

We are obliged to tell you that Moore is running for reelection. His primary is contested, but honestly we don’t need to tell you anything else there. Moore will win easily. (OK, fine. His opponent’s name is Eric Felber. Just don’t ask any more questions, please!)

On the Republican side, the crowded field is widely considered to have two front-runners: man of MAGA Dan Cox and Ed Hale, a self-proclaimed former CIA asset who was a Democrat until polls convinced him that he would lose a primary to Moore. Cox was the nominee in 2022, and he got drubbed in one of the most lopsided elections in state history.

All signs point to Moore trying to run up the score again as he burnishes his profile for a widely rumored 2028 presidential bid. The incumbent governor has millions in the bank, a popular brand and a — mostly — functioning campaign apparatus.

Republicans, on the other hand, have an identity crisis.

Just four years after Larry Hogan left office following two terms as a popular governor, it’s hard to imagine a Republican winning the mansion in Annapolis anytime soon.

A spend-off out west

The Democratic primary for Maryland’s 6th Congressional District is about one thing: 💰💰💰.

David Trone wants his old seat back, and the founder of Total Wine will spend gobs of money to get it. The only person standing in his way is Rep. April McClain Delaney, who’s also rich, just not Trone rich.

McClain Delaney, who replaced Trone in Congress when he ran for the U.S. Senate in 2024, has the backing of Maryland’s Democratic establishment and former U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. The main question here is whether Trone’s money and existing relationships in the district are enough.

The house that Hoyer built

Rep. Steny Hoyer has been a giant in Congress and a fixture of Maryland’s political scene. His retirement at the end of this year will usher in a new era for the 5th Congressional District. For the first time, the district that covers some of the country’s most prosperous Black communities will almost certainly be represented by a Black person.

The field is packed — there are almost two dozen candidates in the Democratic primary — and includes some big names.

Harry Dunn you might recognize as a hero cop of the Capitol Police from the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection. He ran for Congress in 2024 and lost in the 3rd District to Sarah Elfreth. Rushern Baker III is a former Prince George’s County executive whose campaigns for governor fizzled out.

And there’s Del. Adrian Boafo, Hoyer’s former campaign manager and his hand-picked replacement. Hoyer invited the press to come watch him vote for Boafo.

Boafo’s campaign is endorsed by Moore and Sen. Angela Alsobrooks and has received millions from political action committees. As a lobbyist by trade, he has come under fire for his ties to Big Tech, but it remains to be seen whether that will matter.

Whoever comes out of this crowded field could do so with a small share of the vote.

New vs. old

Rep. Kweisi Mfume first got to Congress in 1987. Mark Conway, Mfume’s Democratic primary opponent, was born in 1989.

Conway is an upstart Baltimore city councilman who has made more enemies than friends in City Hall. Mfume is a power broker so revered by the city’s Black political class that the mere idea of challenging him will get you naughty looks in polite company.

But Conway is tenacious. He is running as a change candidate, positioning himself to Mfume’s left. The incumbent has largely disregarded Conway, though they’ve had a few testy exchanges. Still, it would be a shocking upset if Conway won.

The 7th Congressional District is heavily Democratic, so Tuesday’s winner is a lock for Congress.