Will Maryland opt into a national school voucher program? It’s a risky calculation.

Gov. Wes Moore will soon face what could turn out to be one of the most influential education decisions he’ll make as governor.

Before him is the question of whether he should sign Maryland up for a federal tax credit program that begins in January, which has the potential to raise tens of millions of dollars in revenue for both private and public schools without adding to the state’s expenditures.

If he opts Maryland into the program, state taxpayers will owe nothing.

But deciding to allow the Trump administration’s school voucher program, some experts said, could upend the way we fund schools — even public schools — and launch the state into an experiment with unknown consequences. Those opposed to the program, including the state’s largest teachers union and education advocates, warn that the tax credit program will lead to corruption and could harm students.

Researchers believe it will be hard for governors not to open a spigot full of funding while states around them use it. So far, 31 states have signed on, including New York under Gov. Kathy Hochul, but none of them have Democratic governors who are viewed as potential presidential candidates.

Moore has said he is not running for president, though he has taken steps common for candidates preparing for a presidential run.

At the same time, teachers unions, an influential force in Democratic politics, are lining up against the voucher program.

The Moore administration declined to comment.

Maryland State Department of Education spokeswoman Raven Hill said the agency has not taken a position on the matter.

If Maryland signs up, the state’s residents can donate up to $1,700 a year to a nonprofit of their choosing that awards scholarships, or vouchers, to students attending private or religious schools. They could also give to a nonprofit that gives scholarships to public school students for services like after-school clubs, field trips, tutoring or even transportation.

In return, donors will get a federal tax credit of up to $1,700. In other words, donors can give a gift without paying a dime because they take it off their federal taxes.

The nonprofits, which are called Scholarship Granting Organizations, will give out funds to children in families who earn up to 300% of the area’s median gross income. In the Baltimore area, scholarships can go to families earning up to $402,000, or in Prince George’s and Montgomery counties, those who make up to $498,300, according to calculations by The Education Trust.

The SGO decides the size of the scholarship, which is not limited. So a child attending an expensive private school could have their entire tuition paid for through the tax credit program. Representatives of private and religious schools, such as Rabbi Ariel Sadwin, president of the Maryland Council for American Private Education and executive director of Agudah Maryland, are lobbying Moore to sign on.

But Marguerite Roza, a Georgetown University researcher and director of the Edunomics Lab, believes public schools could also take advantage of it in ways they don’t yet understand. Public school districts, she said, should begin setting up SGOs now in case Moore opts the state in to the program.

She outlined a structure local school districts could set up to bring in tens of millions of dollars:

Because the law says scholarships have to go to entities that charge a fee, Roza said, school districts would have to start charging high-earning parents for certain services, like field trips or tutoring.

Any family earning less than the tax credit’s income threshold would get the extras for free because the money would come from a scholarship through the SGO.

To encourage contributions to the SGO, school districts could ask their thousands of employees — and employees from local businesses — to voluntarily give a donation through a payroll deduction. Since donations would be taken off their federal taxes, the contribution would have no impact on their wages.

If 20,000 people donated $1,700 to a public school district’s SGO, that would produce $34 million.

“Our read is that there is a lot of money for districts,” Roza said. “This is a massive change.” In 20 years, she said, public schools might have four consistent revenue streams: federal, state, local and tax credit.

Roza said she is not taking a position on what governors should do. “I am not advocating for anything here. I am just explaining the math,” she said.

The Edunomics Lab financial analysts will begin holding seminars this week for school district leaders to explain how public schools could take advantage of the law.

The Treasury Department has yet to issue regulations governing the federal tax credits, which were written into the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that passed last year. But Roza believes the regulations are not likely to be detailed. Those rules are expected soon, at latest by the end of the summer, according to several experts.

If those regulations are more prescriptive, public schools might not benefit as much, Roza said. “There are a lot of loose ends here.”

Josh Cowen, professor of education policy at Michigan State University, said he is concerned that public school advocates are not reacting quickly enough to take advantage of the law.

“I don’t think that people have really internalized in that community how much is changing about federal dollars, and this is going to be something they need to scramble to get just to pay the bills,” he said.

Cowen is a vocal critic of school vouchers, but in this case, he believes more money is likely to go to public than private schools. “I understand the downsides, but I’m saying this has upsides for public schools,” he said.

The Maryland State Education Association, the largest teachers union in the state and a supporter of Moore, is firmly opposed to Maryland’s participation in the tax credit. MSEA executive director Sean Johnson said the “fundamental framework of the program is designed to funnel funds to private school tuition” and while some funds would go to public schools “that is not the goal of the Trump administration.”

Johnson believes it will harm public schools because it is estimated to cost the federal government about $50 billion in revenue each year. He believes that could result in a reduction in other federal funds that flow to the state, including those for students with special needs and economically disadvantaged students.

In addition, he argues students would leave public schools for private schools, adding to the decline in enrollment already underway due to lower birthrates.

Other opponents of the program fear that Maryland’s students could be put at risk.

“You are opening the state up to an entirely unregulated market,” said Emily Young, a senior associate for advocacy and engagement at the Education Trust who is working with a group of Maryland advocates, including Strong Schools Maryland, to convince Moore not to opt in.

So far there are no rules to ensure that the schools or programs the scholarship money goes to are licensed, don’t discriminate, or provide quality learning programs, she said.

There is no deadline for Moore to make a decision to opt in. He could wait a year and then decide, but schools will have to set up SGOs to operate within the state before they can begin collecting donations. In order to help private or public schools for the 2027-2028 school year, the SGOs would have to begin collecting donations in January, when the tax credit takes effect.

The danger for a governor who decides to hold off making a decision, Wolfe and Roza said, is that Marylanders begin donating to out-of-state SGOs, and then it could be difficult to get them to shift if Maryland opts in.

Patrick Wolfe, a distinguished professor of education policy at the University of Arkansas, and a voucher supporter, estimates that 48 governors will opt in to the program. The two states not expected to join are Hawaii and California.

“From a political standpoint, it would be governance malpractice for Governor Moore not to opt Maryland into the program, because Maryland taxpayers are automatically eligible to contribute, and many of them will because they get all their money back.”

About the Education Hub

This reporting is part of The Banner’s Education Hub, community-funded journalism that provides parents with resources they need to make decisions about how their children learn. Read more.