MTA considers pivoting Red Line to rapid bus service instead of light rail, sources say

Baltimore’s proposed east-west Red Line may not be light rail after all.

Maryland transportation officials have prepared contingency plans for the long-sought transit line, according to multiple sources familiar with those discussions but not authorized to speak publicly about them, following concerns over locking in federal funding, rising costs and complications with land acquisition in East Baltimore.

The Maryland Transit Administration is already far behind schedule for selecting one of three routes between Woodlawn and the Johns Hopkins Bayview Medical Center through downtown.

Now, two additional options are being considered for how to build the Red Line, according to the sources.

One includes scrapping plans for light rail in favor of bus rapid transit, a sort of souped-up bus option commonly referred to as BRT. Like light rail, it would have stations and a dedicated travel lane, but at a fraction of the cost.

The other option would have the Maryland Transit Administration stick with light rail but pursue construction in phases similar to how the state built Baltimore’s current Light Rail. Under that plan, the agency would build the west half of the roughly 14-mile line exclusively using state funds, in hopes of positioning the east half of the project for federal funding in future years.

It remains unclear whether Gov. Wes Moore, a Democrat who reversed Republican Gov. Larry Hogan’s cancellation of the project, will pursue one of the contingency plans to fulfill one of his marquee promises of getting construction started while he’s in office.

If he does, it would represent a major shift for the massive project that might upset some transportation advocates and city residents. But it also could save the Red Line from a second death, significantly speed up the timeline for a completed project and bring Baltimore closer to reliable east-west public transit after years of delay.

In an emailed statement, MTA spokesperson Veronica Battisti did not address specific contingency options, but said the agency and Moore’s administration remain committed to the project.

“The Red Line project team continues to explore alternative delivery strategies that allow us to address fiscal realities and community needs and keep this critical project moving forward so it does not continue to linger for decades more,” she wrote.

Moore resuscitated the Red Line in 2023, then chose light rail a year later as the state’s preferred mode.

But the U.S. was a different place than it is today, one former official said.

When Donald Trump was elected in 2024 for a second stint in the White House, his promises of austerity and retribution toward political opponents immediately cast public doubt on the federal funding chances for what was envisioned as a multibillion-dollar project in a deep blue state.

With Maryland already struggling to meet its transportation budget needs, the state clearly cannot cover the Red Line’s estimated $8 billion cost, the official said.

During a February budget hearing in Annapolis, acting Transportation Secretary Kathryn “Katie” Thomson described her department’s relationship with its federal transportation counterparts as “business as usual.”

That being said, she added, getting funding for new transit would be a “steep hill to climb.”

A host of changes at the federal level have led to more uncertainty for transit projects, Battisti wrote. Fewer Federal Transit Administration dollars are available and approvals are taking longer, all while costs, including for light rail projects, are going up.

“As stewards of public dollars, MTA must ensure every project moves forward in a fiscally responsible way,” she said. “As with all major projects that require federal collaboration and support, the Moore-Miller Administration is obligated to deliver timely and cost-effective solutions for taxpayers—including evaluating all options for delivery of the Red Line.”

The previous timeline had the MTA selecting one of three possible routes — two surface-level options and one that would bore a tunnel under downtown — by the end of 2024. But after the selection of light rail as the mode, it was clear that locking in the route east of downtown would be tricky.

Development in the area around Canton Crossing has exploded since the project’s first iteration more than a decade ago, and land previously envisioned for train tracks now houses apartments and shops. Though public transit does well to have such things nearby, there are new property owners and space constraints that make finalizing that part of the route difficult, sources said.

MTA Administrator Holly Arnold said at a budget hearing last month that her team has already considered 20 different route alignments in the area.

A pivot to a bus rapid transit system would afford more flexibility by requiring less invasive construction. There’s also reason to believe that BRT could be just as effective as a light rail while saving the state billions of dollars.

While trains can carry more people than buses, buses can reach the same speeds as light rail. The cost savings could allow the MTA to purchase and run more buses for the route, making up for the discrepancy in capacity.

A key issue for any transit line is how its vehicles interact with the traffic around it; Howard Street offers a cautionary tale about trains and cars mixing.

BRT differentiates itself from regular bus service by running in a dedicated right-of-way separated from traffic. Given its own lane the length of the route — its “tracks” — and priority at traffic signals, it could run just as efficiently. Cities around the world — from Bogotá, Colombia, to Cleveland — have used BRT to great success for residents.

However, its flexibility also leaves the door open to changes that could weaken it. In Cleveland, for example, ridership and reliability of its BRT Healthline have declined over time after backlash from car drivers about its priority at traffic signals.

The Maryland Department of Transportation’s current six-year spending plan includes more than $130 million for preliminary engineering and design for the Red Line, some of which are federal funds awarded under President Joe Biden. It does not include money for construction.

At the same time, the MTA is planning a massive, $1.4 billion overhaul of the current Light Rail, and has even floated purchasing enough trains to accommodate both a north-south and east-west line.

A Red Line light rail would mean a more integrated Baltimore transit network, whereas bus rapid transit would introduce yet another mode to a system that also includes a Metro, the MARC train and commuter bus. The state transportation department has repeatedly shot down calls for expanding the Metro, citing high costs.

“We want to make sure we are having a conversation with the community about the best path forward for the project,” Arnold said during a February budget hearing. “We want to make sure we’re looking at all possible alternatives, kind of keeping everything on the table.”