When will Derrick Henry break the NFL rushing record? We have a prediction.

Join the huddle. Sign up here for Ravens updates in your inbox.

Derrick Henry’s career path is different from almost any other back in NFL history, especially other big backs. For a player his size to be one of the best running backs in the league at age 32 is remarkable. It’s difficult to model the rest of Henry’s career, because models are based on what similar players have done. When it comes to Henry, there really are no similar players.

Most other big backs have seen their careers end by the age of 31. Steven Jackson had just 21 carries for 50 yards when he was 32. Larry Csonka and Jerome Bettis played the longest, until they were 33. Henry is likely to play longer than that, and he should break the all-time record for yardage by a back over 235 pounds this season.

Of course, he’s listed at 252 pounds, making him larger than even most of those comparable players. (For example, Bettis was also listed at 252, but Jamal Lewis was listed at 245 and Csonka 237.)

Henry had only 490 yards and 744 yards in his first two seasons with the Tennessee Titans, and he’s done a lot to catch up to other legendary NFL backs. Henry’s 1,595 yards in 2025 represent the fourth-highest season total ever for a back at age 31. Only one running back has ever put up a season of more than 1,350 yards at age 32 or older: Walter Payton with 1,551 yards in 1985. Henry is on pace to break that mark this season.

To project Henry’s career, I compared his current average yardage per season to a list of the top 16 backs in NFL history. I removed a handful of backs who were better known as receivers and thus not good comparables for Henry (Marshall Faulk, for example). I lowered Henry’s numbers each year based on the average of the other backs who stayed in the league. But, to reach the projection, Henry would have to stay in the league longer than almost any other back in NFL history. Of the top backs, only Frank Gore was still playing in at age 37.

The more likely record for Henry to break is Emmitt Smith’s mark for total rushing touchdowns. Based on my projection, Henry would break this record (164 touchdowns) in the sixth game of the 2029 season, at age 35.

Aaron Schatz has been writing about NFL analytics since he founded the website Football Outsiders in 2003. One of the most influential voices in the space, he is best known for creating the metric DVOA. Schatz is currently chief analytics officer for FTN Fantasy, as well as a writer for ESPN+ and ESPN BET.