What will it take for the Orioles to clinch an AL wild card spot?

WEST SACRAMENTO, Calif. — There are a few Orioles players realistic enough — and comfortable enough in their own skin — to say this out loud.

Chris Bassitt, a 37-year-old who made his MLB debut in 2014, understands the reality.

“If you would’ve told me in spring training, ‘This is what the season is going to be like,’ I would’ve been like, ‘We’re completely out. We’re dead,’” he said. “Fortunately, we’re not. The league gave us a chance. So, be grateful for it, and now it’s on us to go take advantage of it.”

Baltimore wrapped up a sweep in Sacramento against the Athletics on Sunday, and in doing so, the Orioles are only one game back of the final American League wild card spot. That’s despite not having a .500 record since April. With Sunday’s win, the Orioles managed to claw to 68-69 — the definition of mediocrity — and yet they remain right on the cusp of the postseason.

So, yeah, they’re lucky.

But they’re also not about to turn their noses up at the opportunity. They’ve played uneven baseball — to put it mildly — but the season is salvageable.

And perhaps to underscore that belief, the Orioles claimed outfielder Luis Robert Jr. from the Mets on Monday, which adds more thump to their lineup against left-handed pitching while also providing plus defense in the outfield.

Since Major League Baseball expanded the postseason to include three wild card teams in 2022, the barrier of entry into October has lowered. Last year, the Cincinnati Reds made the National League wild card with 83 wins. The lowest win tally for an American League wild card team in the modern format is 86 wins, done thrice.

But this year, the third American League wild card team may not even need that.

One American League executive, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were basing their thoughts in part on proprietary team data, surmised that it would require 83 wins to make the final wild card spot this season. There are 25 games remaining. The Orioles would need to win 15 of their next 25 games to hit that 83-game mark — an entirely doable feat.

The Orioles have, in fact, done it this season. Their best 25-game span, between the end of June and beginning of August, featured 15 wins.

“I’d think probably worst-case scenario, I’ll take that,” starting pitcher Trevor Rogers said of how this season has gone. “It’s definitely a step in the right direction compared to last year, but I think we have underperformed. That’s the cool thing about where we’re at. … It’s going to come down to the wire, so every game is important from here on out. I mean, we’ve got a shot.”

Of course, other teams are in a similar position. The Cleveland Guardians currently sit in the final wild card slot, and their path to 83 wins will take them through Baltimore. The Guardians beat the Orioles in three of four games earlier this season; they’ll play three more at Camden Yards between Sept. 7-9.

The Orioles are half a game ahead of the Toronto Blue Jays, and they meet six more times. The Texas Rangers are one game behind the Orioles, although the Rangers own the season head-to-head tiebreaker, which would give them the nod if the clubs finish with the same records.

FanGraphs projections — which take into account predicted performance and strength of schedule — give both the Blue Jays (25.3) and Rangers (25.5) a better chance of making the postseason than the Orioles (21.3)

Even if a 15-10 record to close out the season is a reasonable target, there are few easy matchups for the Orioles; the Rockies are one of the league’s worst teams, but they play at Coors Field, where the ball flies and trap games are common. The Orioles also must play the Red Sox, Brewers and Yankees — playoff-bound clubs.

Rogers said he checks the standings every day because “that’s how important this time of year is.”

“Guys know. We don’t need a big speech about what’s at stake. We know what’s at stake,” Rogers said. “I don’t think we need any pressure on it. This is what makes this time of year fun, because it could be the complete opposite, where we’re just counting down the days to go home. The fact we’re in this position right now and we still have a chance, it makes the dog days of August go by quicker, and it makes it more meaningful, and just eager to get to the ballpark that much more.”

The Orioles have played better as the months have gone on. In July, they posted their first above-.500 record in a month. With one more to play in August, they could do the same (14-13 currently).

In April, at the very onset of the season and with Baltimore scuffling, The Banner spoke with Bassitt in Kansas City about the state of the club. He noted that there is a feeling-out period when it comes to a new coaching staff, and that process was still ongoing.

On Saturday, when reminded of that comment, Bassitt said he feels the coaching staff under first-time manager Craig Albernaz and the players have grown close. There’s a better understanding of everyone’s roles, Bassitt said.

“Social media, general public, everyone wants extreme success right away,” Bassitt said. “I mean, I understand. The players do. The coaches do, too. Everyone wants extreme success. But a lot of the time, the path to get to the spot that you’re in, there’s some rough times to get to that spot.”

Bassitt said he needed to learn the pitching staff over time to understand which guys can be motivated one way or another and which need a pat on the back. He said Albernaz’s job means he must do the same for 50-some players and coaches. It’s a long process.

“I’m not trying to make an excuse by any means whatsoever, because I still think the first couple months were not good by any means, but you had to have a time where you can’t just come in and start barking,” Bassitt said. “You coming in day one and doing that, you’re going to lose the room very quickly.”

Despite the up-and-down performances, right-hander Shane Baz said he’s pleased with the way the clubhouse remained strong. And he feels the Orioles are playing their cleanest, most consistent baseball currently — which bodes well for the final month.

As Baz pointed out, “the teams that make a difference at the end of the year are the ones that get hot at the right time.”

Not even a month after trading their all-star catcher Adley Rutschman — a clear sign that the front office saw more value in compiling prospects rather than going for it this year — the Orioles are very much in position to play games in October.

“I still think we have more room to grow,” Bassitt said. “But I think we’re playing at a level that’s like, this is good enough to get where we want to go, which is to the playoffs. Now, I still don’t think this is good enough to win in the playoffs, but we still have time to figure that aspect out.”

All of 25 games, that is. It all comes down to this.