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The year was 1986. Neon and acid-washed jeans were in style; Ronald Reagan was president; Madonna and Whitney Houston dominated the airwaves.
And the Orioles swept the Yankees in the Bronx.
June 1986 marks the last time Baltimore swept a three-game or longer series at Yankee Stadium, old or new. Now, 40 years later, the Orioles must do something the club hasn’t since Earl Weaver stalked the dugout in order to keep their season alive. And then Baltimore must get help elsewhere.
So, yes, the Orioles are still alive in the postseason chase. That became true when Baltimore swept the Toronto Blue Jays and the Chicago White Sox lost to the Kansas City Royals on Wednesday. That is only one part of the equation, but it is a big part.
It is amazing to consider that the Orioles, on Sept. 24, can still make the postseason despite being three games under .500 with three games remaining. They are 78-81 and not only must win their own games, they must scoreboard watch and hope.
“Having to watch other games and having your destiny in other peoples’ hands, that sucks,” first baseman Pete Alonso said. “It takes a long time to have a good season, and obviously, we’re still not eliminated, which is great. For us to come out, sweep the double header [Wednesday], that’s big time. With where we’re at, for me, I wish we weren’t.”
But they’re here.
So let’s try to explain the path forward. It is, predictably, weird — because that’s all this season has been.
The absolute must-haves
The Orioles cannot lose one more game. The Chicago White Sox cannot win one more game.
That leaves Chicago needing to go 0-4 in their final games, beginning Thursday at 2:10 p.m. ET against the Kansas City Royals. Then the White Sox host the Colorado Rockies for three games.
As mentioned, the Orioles must sweep the Yankees — which they haven’t done since the Berlin Wall was still standing.
Baltimore is 2-8 against New York this year. The last time the Orioles swept the Yankees anywhere was the final series in 2015, which occurred at Camden Yards.
Granted, the Yankees have already clinched a wild card spot, so they technically have nothing for which to play and could rest key players. Then again it’s an American League East matchup, and those are always heated.
The AL West disaster
This is where it gets tricky. The Texas Rangers and Houston Astros are battling for the American League West, with the loser aiming for the final wild card spot.
Orioles fans will want to cheer against both of those teams, generally speaking, over the last few games. Realistically, this is the scenario:
- The Rangers must either finish the season no better than 80-82 or win the AL West (while the Astros finish at or below 81 wins).
- The Astros must finish no better than 81-81 if they do not win the AL West (and if they win the division, Texas can’t win more than 80 games).
What that means is the Rangers must win no more than two of their final four games. Or they can win all of their final four games against the New York Mets and Minnesota Twins while beating out the Astros for the division.
The Astros, meanwhile, can win the division while the Rangers finish at 80 wins or fewer (this is an important number that will be explained shortly). Houston has four more games against the Athletics. If they don’t win the division, the Astros can’t win more than three of their remaining four games.
When there is a tie in win total, the tiebreaker is head-to-head record against the team. The Orioles won the season series against the Astros, so if they tie at 81 wins (and Houston doesn’t win the West), the wild card spot would go to Baltimore.
The Rangers, though, hold the tiebreaker over the Orioles, so Texas must either win the division or finish at 80 wins or fewer.
Easy, right?
The cold reality
There’s less than a 1% chance of everything going right for the Orioles, according to FanGraphs. But making the postseason is still technically possible, so long as lightning strikes thrice, or maybe more.
In a succinct format, here it all is:
- Orioles must win three games vs. Yankees.
- White Sox must lose last four games vs. Royals and Rockies.
- Astros must win AL West (while the Rangers finish no better than 80 wins) or finish at or below 81 wins themselves.
- Rangers must win AL West (while the Astros can’t win more than 81 games) or finish no better than 80 wins.





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