How an Orioles hitting coach analyzes Gunnar Henderson’s trying season

SEATTLE — All Gunnar Henderson could do was shake his head Tuesday night, because he didn’t know the answer to a question that he has surely been asking himself.

Henderson feels as though he has been putting in the right work, making strides before games for weeks. Then why hasn’t all that effort translated into results?

“I have zero clue,” Henderson said after the first game of the series in Seattle. “I mean, I feel like I’ve been seeing the ball great for about two weeks now. So I don’t know really what to tell you.”

The only thing he can tell himself is to stay patient, to trust the pregame efforts, to focus on his strike zone discipline. Anything else could be detrimental to the Orioles shortstop’s efforts to return to his best — a level that was among the league’s best.

In 2024, when Henderson finished fourth in American League MVP voting, he produced 8.8 wins above replacement with an .893 on-base-plus-slugging percentage. He was well on his way to becoming a star. Last year was a modest step back, and this year his .706 OPS entering Wednesday is the lowest of his career.

But the Orioles have maintained he needs to be near the top of the order and in the lineup just about every game because of the one-swing-away nature of a Henderson hot streak. It’s too soon to say whether the two-run home run he clubbed Wednesday is that one swing, but what Henderson did in that at-bat goes along with what hitting coach Dustin Lind has seen all season.

“You look at what’s happening when he’s swinging inside the strike zone, it’s regular Gunnar Henderson stuff,” said Lind, who’s in his first year as Baltimore’s hitting coach. “It’s high batting average, lots of slug. He’s doing lots of really good things. He’s not missing over the plate.”

That was for sure when George Kirby grooved a middle-in fastball in the third inning. Henderson bashed it for his 15th home run this year — only two shy of last season’s total.

“It’s just, the expanding outside the zone and the chase early in the season is kind of what got him into a little bit of a hole,” Lind said. “But the way he’s taking his walks, especially the last homestand, is encouraging. There’s definitely signs of trending up. It’s just taking a little while to get the results to match the work.”

For the Orioles to make a run back into playoff contention in a weak American League, Henderson is a pivotal piece. Adley Rutschman looks back to his best. Pete Alonso is heating up. Blaze Alexander has been a pleasant surprise, and Samuel Basallo is showing ample promise.

But Henderson, in many ways, is the straw that stirs the drink. He plays a premium defensive position and has speed on the bases and power at the plate.

“I want Gunnar Henderson getting as many at-bats as he can,” manager Craig Albernaz said when asked about potentially shaking up the batting order. “He’s an impact player. He can change the game with one swing of the bat, with one great at-bat.”

That hasn’t happened nearly as often as Baltimore would have hoped.

“When he hits the ball, it’s not finding an open area of the field,” Albernaz said. “He’s hitting a lot of balls at people. He’s just missing balls as well, where it’s either a hard ground ball that’s at someone or it’s hit in the air at the wrong angle. … His prep is right. His work is great. His preparation is there. He’s seeing the ball well. Right now, he’s just not getting the results he wants. He’s just not finding open grass.”

He can also put himself in adverse situations when he expands the zone. In May, Henderson’s chase rate on pitches outside the zone was 37.4%. By comparison, in 2024 it was 23.2%, which ranked in the 84th percentile among hitters.

There has been an improvement in that category, though. In June, entering Wednesday, Henderson’s chase rate was down to 23.1%.

That has a lot to do with being more selective overall, not just for balls. He’s swinging at slightly fewer pitches this month than earlier this season, and Lind said there’s an aspect to swing decisions with fewer than two strikes that depends on a prepitch decision.

“I think the difference between year ’24 and this year is picking the side of the plate that he’s going to hunt in a particular at-bat and not try to cover the whole plate,” Lind said.

Earlier this year, Lind said, Henderson attempted to attack any pitch in the zone rather than targeting a specific area. Throughout his career, inside pitches have led to success. That is continuing this year, with a .316 average against pitches on the inner third of the plate, according to Statcast. Contrastingly, Henderson is hitting .197 against pitches on the outer third.

“You have to pick certain spots where you’re going to really hunt those areas of the zone, and he’s done a much better job of that over the last few weeks in particular,” Lind said.

In perhaps a show of respect from opposing pitchers, Henderson isn’t seeing an abundance of pitches in the zone. What’s more is that he isn’t seeing many fastballs. Entering Wednesday, he had faced fastballs 24.8% of the time, which was 24th fewest in the majors. That is the same rate New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge sees fastballs.

When Henderson sees a fastball in the zone, he generally does well against it. Entering Wednesday (when he hit another fastball in the zone for a homer), Henderson’s slugging percentage against them was .500, per Statcast. His overall success rate against heaters (.221 average) is dragged down by his out-of-zone swings. On 79 swings, he’s hitting .100 with a .133 slugging percentage, as is expected.

It goes back to plate discipline, then. And, on the whole, that has been improving as the season has gone on. The results haven’t followed in one fell swoop, but perhaps his swing against Kirby on Wednesday will be the start of something more Gunnar-like. It may just take much more patience.

“It’s like a Chinese finger trap. The more you struggle against it, the more it’s going to suck you in,” Lind said. “You just have to go up there and relax and let go, and go up there and be yourself and trust your training, trust your talent. Because talent and hard-earned skill in this game is almost always going to win out. That’s the way with him. He’s incredibly talented. He’s worked incredibly hard to get the skills that he has. Those are going to come out. You just have to be OK letting go of the results a little bit and trusting your process.”