10 stats that explain the Nationals’ surprising start to the season

Entering June, the Nationals are one of the surprising, upstart teams in the National League. They went 16-12 in May — their best record in a month since August 2023 — and enter June with a 31-29 record.

Here are 10 stats that explain how the team got to this point. All stats provided are before Sunday’s games.

320: Runs scored

Although they boast the youngest position-player group in the majors, the Nationals’ youth hasn’t been a hindrance. Their 320 runs led the majors, and they were the first team to score 300. Through 59 games last season, the Nationals scored 265 runs, 11th best in the majors. CJ Abrams and James Wood have been steady all season, but Daylen Lile and Curtis Mead’s uptick in production gives the lineup much-needed depth.

“I feel like it’s just a collective effort,” Wood said. “I feel like everyone’s playing at a really high level and we’re just clicking.”

164: Wood’s weighted runs created plus

Wood’s 164 wRC+ — which measures a player’s all-around offensive impact relative to league average — ranked third among qualified major league hitters, according to FanGraphs. Only Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez (188 wRC+) and the Yankees’ Ben Rice (186) were above Wood.

Wood has acclimated well to the leadoff spot. He’s taking his walks and has cut his strikeout rate (28.8%) from last season (32.1%). Wood has reverted to the All-Star form he displayed in the first half of last season before scuffling down the stretch. As the leadoff hitter, Wood led the National League in total walks (49).

“I’m just trying to control the zone,” Wood said. “I feel like, if I’m able to do that, I feel like I’m able to just trust my swing and let the game come.”

37: Abrams’ RBIs with runners in scoring position

Abrams has been one of the best hitters in the majors and extremely potent in the cleanup spot. Entering Sunday, Abrams was batting .290 with a .928 OPS and was second in the majors in RBIs (47) — his career high is 65. His wRC+ best showcases Abrams’ stellar start. Entering Sunday, his 159 wRC+ ranked seventh in MLB.

But it seems as if, any time the Nationals need a big hit to mount a comeback or pour in more runs, Abrams provides it. He has been productive with RISP. His 37 RBIs were second in the majors, and he was batting .397 in those moments. Manager Blake Butera said, “CJ continues to do special things with the bat, and you love it when he’s up in big situations.”

“You feel good in the dugout when he’s up in that spot,” Butera said after Wednesday’s loss to the Guardians. “He just continues to have really good at-bats, no matter if he’s 2-0 in the count or 0-2. He just finds ways to impress every single time.”

-12: Nationals’ outs above average

There’s room for the Nationals to grow on defense. Their collective outs above average mark ranked 26th in the majors, according to Baseball Savant. OAA measures a player’s range and how many outs he saves compared to an average defender. Outside of second baseman Nasim Nuñez, Lile and center fielder Jacob Young, the Nationals don’t have many plus defenders — though Mead has improved since taking over third base.

In traditional errors, the Nationals have committed 53, 13 more than the second-worst team. The gap between Washington and Miami is as large as the one between the Marlins and Phillies, who rank 17th with 27 errors.

Abrams had a minus-8 OAA, and Wood posted a minus-5 OAA.

48: Nationals’ percentage of taking an extra base

The Nationals have emphasized being aggressive and taking extra bases when available. Their XBT% was third in the majors.

First-base coach Corey Ray, who oversees the team’s baserunning, has gained the players’ trust due to his relentless dedication to watching film of opposing pitchers. The Nationals’ commitment to baserunning has proved fruitful, turning their athleticism into a strength as runners routinely go from first to third on singles.

251 2/3: Innings pitched by starters

The Nationals haven’t received the length they probably would have wanted from their rotation. The starters’ innings total ranked last in the majors.

There were a lot of unknowns entering the season. Left-hander Foster Griffin was coming back to the majors after a stint in Japan, Cade Cavalli had yet to put together a full major league season, and Miles Mikolas was coming off a season that saw him eat innings for the Cardinals (156 1/3) but allow 29 homers. Zack Littell struggled to start the season (8.37 ERA) but rebounded in May (2.19 ERA).

How successful the Nationals are this season will likely come down to the performance of their starters the rest of the way.

.876: Mead’s OPS

Mead’s OPS would be the highest of his major league career. He’s already slugged a career-high eight homers and benefited from regular playing time. At first Mead mostly played first base against left-handers, but after producing consistently, he earned more at-bats against right-handers. He said there’s a freedom in the transparency from the coaching staff.

“I give a lot of credit to Blake and the staff just being straight up when I did get here,” Mead said. “I understood my role and just tried to succeed, and he assured me that if I took care of my opportunities, there’d be more coming.”

With each at-bat, you can see Mead’s confidence building. Butera credited Mead for his pregame work studying opposing pitchers.

21.9%: Nationals’ strikeout rate

The Nationals’ starting staff doesn’t boast the stuff to strike out batters. Its rate ranked 14th in the majors, according to FanGraphs. The staff has a low margin for error because the pitchers can’t make up for it with overpowering stuff. The Nationals run into trouble when they walk batters and are unable to escape the jam.

7: Jacob Young’s home run total

Over the first 303 games of his career, Young belted just five homers. Over 57 games, he has already topped that.

In the offseason, Young worked on improving his bat speed and launch angle to extract more extra-base potential out of his bat. He’s seen success in the power department. The organization believed there was more offensive production in Young, who’s one of the best defenders in the majors.

4: Catcher-framing runs

Keibert Ruiz is starting to show positive signs at the pate and Drew Millas homered Saturday, but their best value to the team has come on defense.

Entering Sunday, the Nationals’ tandem ranked fifth in the majors in catcher-framing runs value. Pitchers laud both catchers for their preparation and feel when calling pitches.