UMBC Poll: Moore leads Cox in race for governor by 2-to-1 margin

If Maryland’s election for governor were held today, incumbent Democratic Gov. Wes Moore would pull in more than twice as many votes as Republican challenger Dan Cox, according to a new poll from UMBC.

Moore drew 51% support in a poll released Tuesday by the University of Maryland, Baltimore County’s Institute of Politics, compared to 24% for Cox.

About 14% of poll respondents were undecided. The remainder said they support Green Party candidate Andy Ellis, Working Class Party candidate Cathy White or someone else.

The survey of 776 likely voters was conducted Sept. 22-27 via landlines, cellphones and text messaging. The margin of error is 3.5 percentage points.

The poll indicates that little has changed from four years ago, when Moore soundly defeated Cox, according to Mileah Kromer, director of the UMBC Institute of Politics.

Moore doubled up on Cox in 2022, with 65% to 32% of the vote.

Each candidate is pulling largely from their own base and party. Among Democrats, 72% are supporting Moore, while among Republicans, 75% plan to vote for Cox.

The candidates are drawing few votes from the opposing party, which poses a particular challenge for Cox, given that Democrats outnumber Republicans and independents.

The path for a Republican to win a statewide election, as executed by two-term former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan, is to win over persuadable Democrats and independent voters in addition to strong Republican support.

That’s not happening with Cox. Only 4% of Democrats and 14% of unaffiliated voters polled by UMBC said they’re supporting Cox.

“The big takeaway for me is that Dan Cox is not rebuilding the Hogan coalition, whatsoever,” Kromer said.

Cox could make gains by wooing undecided voters, but it’s unlikely that a majority of the 14% currently undecided will break his way, Kromer said. Even if all of the undecided voters picked Cox, that wouldn’t overcome the gap with Moore.

There’s not much wiggle room for Cox to get voters to change their minds. A total of 84% of Moore voters said they are set on their choice, and only 15% said they were open to changing their mind.

“The race looks very, very similar to what it did in 2022, except for the fact that we now have an incumbent governor, which makes it more difficult” for Cox, Kromer said.

Moore has significant advantages over Cox in campaigning.

Moore has millions of dollars on hand that he’s starting to spend on glowing TV ads airing on multiple stations and on shows including news broadcasts and NFL football games. He has so much money that he’s been showering political allies with maximum $6,000 campaign donations.

As an incumbent, Moore’s name is in the news on a daily basis, and he can use his official events to promote his tenure in office.

Cox, as of his last campaign finance report, had about $136,000 in the bank and outstanding loans of $148,000. He’s been busy doing radio interviews, visiting county fairs and attending meet-and-greets, but he hasn’t yet drawn significant news coverage of his campaign and doesn’t have the cash to make a major media buy.

The two candidates will face off Tuesday in the only scheduled TV debate of the season. The debate will be recorded at noon and air at 7 p.m. at The Baltimore Banner and on Maryland Public Television, WBAL-TV, WBAL Radio and WRC-TV.

Mail ballots are already being sent out to some voters. In-person early voting will run Oct. 22-29, and traditional Election Day is Nov. 3.