Who succeeds Steny Hoyer could offer a glimpse into Democrats’ future

Maryland’s most competitive congressional primary is a microcosm of the Democratic Party itself.

A long-serving party elder is retiring, handing the reins to a younger generation. Nearly two dozen Democrats are seeking the seat, including fired federal workers, a former Capitol Police officer, state and local lawmakers, and business founders.

The residents of the 5th Congressional District have been battered by Trump administration job cuts and policies, and, reflecting long-term trends in the Democratic Party, are more diverse, educated and wealthy than the country as a whole.

University of Maryland, Baltimore County political scientist Jé St Sume argues the replacement for U.S. Rep. Steny Hoyer after four decades in office is vital to the future of the party because of those shifting demographics.

“Whoever wins this primary will do more than fill an open seat,” St Sume said. “They will help shape the Democratic Party’s direction heading into November and, potentially, the 2028 presidential cycle.”

Nationally, Democrats are still reeling from the 2024 elections, losing the White House to President Donald Trump, control of the Senate and failing to regain the House of Representatives. The party is grasping with the reality that many of its veteran leaders, such as Hoyer and former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, are calling it quits.

The race features former Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker, business executive Quincy Bareebe, Prince George’s County Council member Wala Blegay, state Del. Adrian Boafo, retired U.S. Capitol Police Officer Harry Dunn and state Sen. Arthur Ellis, among others.

The open seat represents portions of Prince George’s and Anne Arundel counties and all of Charles, Calvert and St. Mary’s counties.

Still popular — he won 72% of the primary vote in his last campaign — Hoyer announced his retirement in January and endorsed Boafo, his former campaign manager.

“I think that was an indication of sort of a changing of the guard and new and younger dynamic leadership rising up,” Hoyer said. “And I think that’s hopefully, from my standpoint, what will happen in this election.”

The region — particularly Prince George’s County — has been ahead of the national curve for years, Hoyer said. He points to the area’s historically lower housing costs as a major beacon for Black residents. He voted in favor of the Fair Housing Act of 1966, which also helped.

But the district has changed considerably since Hoyer first took the seat nearly half a century ago. Today, more than half of the district’s voters are Black, Latino or a person of color; it was a little more than one-third of voters when Hoyer, who is white, was first elected.

That’s also reflected in the candidates who are running, said Niambi Carter, an associate professor at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy, especially the African diasporic growth that has occurred throughout Prince George’s County in the past 25 years.

“They are well represented in the county, and I think what we’re seeing with folks like Wala Blegay and Adrian Boafo [Bareebe is also an African immigrant] is that moment would’ve come to fruition," she said. “It is only right, and one should expect that these communities as they mature, politically and otherwise, that they are going to seek representation.”

Maryland has elected the nation’s only Black governor in Wes Moore and elected Angela Alsobrooks, a Black woman, to the U.S. Senate in the last two elections. Democrats stick with white leadership at their own peril, Carter said.

“They have to do more than simply talk about all the ways Republicans are failing,” she said. “They have to give minority voters a reason not to divest from the political process altogether.”

St Sume pointed to the district adding residents, driven largely by Black, Asian and multiracial families moving from the increasingly expensive Northeast corridor. On paper, those demographic shifts make the district appear even safer for Democrats, St Sume said. In practice, they are sharpening the ideological divide within the party, St Sume added.

But Maryland has long defied easy categorization, she said, and observers should let go of assumptions about the 5th Congressional District. It’s a heavily Democratic state with a large Black electorate that twice elected a Republican governor, a reminder that Maryland voters are often more flexible and less ideologically rigid than national narratives suggest.

The candidates largely agree on some issues, including humane immigration reform and making the federal budgeting process more predictable to avoid future shutdowns.

Affordability has also been an issue during the campaign. Two candidates — Del. Nicole Williams and Terry Jackson — dropped out, citing the costs associated with running a campaign in the current economy.

Outside political action committee money has also been an issue. Baker, Bareebe and Dunn have complained that PACs aligned with the cryptocurrency industry and the American Israel Public Affairs Committee have spent nearly $8 million boosting Boafo. They’ve urged Boafo, Moore and Alsobrooks to disavow the spending. U.S. Sen. Chris Van Hollen has raised concerns about outside spending as well.

The outside money and Hoyer’s endorsement send a signal, Williams said, but the decision will come down to the voters.

“They want to do their research and make a determination as to who they’re going to vote for based on their values, based on what they see and hear and read,” she said.

Williams thinks that happens more now than in the past, when people relied more on word-of-mouth recommendations.

With older members of the party retiring or dying, Williams said, it has given a lot of younger people the opportunity to step up in leadership. Williams thinks what we’re seeing in Maryland and in the 5th District will reflect nationally later.

“I feel like we always punch to some degree above our weight,” she said. “We’re always kind of leading the way on a lot of things, whether it’s from a policy perspective or just in the caliber of the elected officials that we have and the ones that we send to Washington.”