Hutzell: Dan Schwartz has a real chance to beat Andy Harris in Maryland’s 1st District

Dan Schwartz answered the door with a baby in his arms.

We met just three days after tiny Noa was born. Her arrival forced him to take a rare break from months of campaigning to oust U.S. Rep. Andy Harris from Congress in Maryland’s 1st District.

Her name means “movement.”

Whether irony is intended, movement is what this former state bank policy expert is counting on — a big enough shift in Maryland’s most conservative district to flip it from Republican to Democrat.

“We win by connecting with, listening to and convincing independent voters that I’m a more reasonable option than Congressman Harris,” Schwartz told a group of volunteers before a July morning of door-knocking in Easton.

“That I’ll actually show up and that I will represent everyone — Democrats, independents, Republicans — not just the folks on the far extremes that Congressman Harris represents.”

I’ve been following the 38-year-old candidate since Independence Day, listening as he talks with supporters at sweat-soaked rallies, youth door-knocking campaigns and parking lot gatherings.

Through it all, I’ve asked — can Schwartz win?

The answer I found is yes. But the path to an upset is narrow.

“Is it going to be easy or possible to defeat Andy Harris? I’m not even sure. I don’t know,” said Silvia Gonzalez Roman of Eastern Shore Indivisible, a coalition of groups campaigning against Harris. “But I think it’s really critical to challenge something that seems unbreakable. It’s unbreakable until it’s breakable.”

Harris is seeking a ninth term in Maryland’s Republican stronghold. He’s the state’s only Republican in Congress and trounced his last Democratic challenger by 22 points. Two years before that, he beat well-funded former state Del. Heather Mizeur by 11 points.

Head of the right-wing Freedom Caucus in Congress, Harris describes himself as a fiscal conservative and immigration hard-liner. He votes for strict limits on government-supported healthcare, food aid and other social welfare programs.

And he’s an ardent supporter of President Donald Trump, whether it’s the president’s war in Iran, the bulldozing of the East Wing of the White House or claiming without evidence that undocumented immigrants are voting in elections.

“I think that only Americans, American citizens, should vote in federal elections,” he said. “That’s what federal law says.”

Even by Schwartz’s internal polling, Harris is comfortably ahead, 52% to 39%. It’s the only polling data released so far, now two months old. With mail ballots out and early voting starting in 18 days, that’s a lot of minds to change.

Schwartz needs three things to happen to win.

He must motivate Democratic voters used to losing, hope that Republicans demoralized by national trends stay home and — most importantly — win over the growing number of independents.

Nowhere is that more crucial than in Harford County. Schwartz must win a decisive majority of its 48,000 independent voters — the district’s biggest prize.

“He’s got to appeal to independent voters, especially with the farming policies and federal workers here,” said Henry “Sandy” Gibbons, chair of Harford’s Democratic Party.

Two years ago, the county and the rest of the 1st District went big for Trump and Harris. Independents broke for Republicans nationwide that year, and together those two groups made up 65% of the district.

But the president is not on the ballot this fall, and the number of unaffiliated voters has grown in every county in the district since then — 9% each in Harford and Wicomico, and 7% in both Cecil and Talbot.

Movement might come from the tariffs that are hurting farmers, the president’s inexplicable war or gas station signs that provide an illuminated daily reminder of inflation.

“If you put all the unaffiliated and Dems together, they outnumber the Republicans,” Gonzalez Rowan said. “Moving those unaffiliated voters and the pissed-off Republicans, either not to vote or to vote for Dan, is the way to win.”

National polls suggest that Republicans will lose their House majority and maybe the Senate as well. Schwartz and his allies need to leverage that momentum to defeat Harris.

Harris declined to comment on the campaign. He doesn’t see Schwartz as a threat but is responding to the political climate.

He recently introduced legislation to suspend the federal gas tax — the same thing he blasted as a political “stunt” when President Joe Biden proposed it.

The idea foundered in Congress, and Schwartz pounced with a social media barb.

“Must hit different when it’s objectively your own party’s fault that people are struggling to afford fuel at re-election time,” he wrote on Instagram.

About those dismal internal poll numbers? The campaign sees a map, not a prognosis.

“Informed voters” shift the poll to 45%-44%, with Schwartz ahead and 9% undecided. Informed, of course, is the campaign’s telling of Harris’ record.

So Schwartz is aggressively trying to inform as many voters in as many places as possible, as are his allies.

From Crisfield to Bel Air, from Ocean City to Kent Island, he’s kept a frenetic pace. In 16 months of campaigning, Schwartz has held more than 100 public events.

“I really think that the Democrats, as a party, we’ve kind of forgotten that we can win campaigns the old-fashioned way by getting out, listening to people, shaking hands and by being the better candidate,” Schwartz said.

It contrasts with Harris’ low profile.

At a chamber of commerce mixer in August near Harris’ home in Cambridge, he was billed as a guest of honor.

As 100 people socialized in the Layton’s Chance Vineyard and Winery tasting room, neither organizers nor his district representative knew if Harris would show.

“He’s not been very available for 12 years,” nonprofit executive Kerrie Bunting of Salisbury said.

Yet others at the event appreciated his work.

“Andy was the only one who helped us with visas for temporary workers,” said Mike Perry, owner of Old Salty’s Restaurant in Fishing Creek. “He’s very approachable when you see him pumping gas in Cambridge.”

Schwartz is, by his own description, a political nobody.

He worked as a lawyer at an association of state-chartered banks. He and his wife, Megan, moved to the tiny Talbot County town of Royal Oak during the pandemic, deciding they didn’t want to raise kids in D.C.

He left his job to run full time in April 2025. So as he puts campaign miles on his pickup, the family lives on savings and Megan’s salary as a nurse practitioner in Dorchester County.

Climbing into his truck bed across the street from Harris’ Bel Air district office, Schwartz said he wants to overturn the U.S. Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision on corporate political contributions and replace “never‑ending wars” with a better public healthcare system.

He wants to trade ICE overreach for investments in hospitals, schools, public safety and working-class families.

“Everybody needs to be able to afford their groceries and their basic costs of living,” he said.

Although Gov. Wes Moore endorsed Schwartz in the primary and congressional Democrats are campaigning for him, he keeps the state party at arm’s length in his appearances.

It’s not only about winning over independents. It keeps him out of the fight over a ballot question that would give the Democratic-controlled General Assembly more power to carve up the district should Harris win again.

If that happens, Schwartz’s first move will be a job.

“Quitting your job and running for Congress is not the smartest thing to do, especially when you’re growing a family,” he said. “Bills don’t stop.”

Heading into the campaign’s final weeks, Harris has the money edge.

He’s raised about $2.1 million to Schwartz’s $700,000 and is spending more like a kingmaker than a candidate. The next finance reports are due Oct. 15, but state Democrats are staging fundraisers to boost Schwartz in the remaining weeks.

Harris sent $50,000 to the national Republican Party and another $35,000 to the state organization. He’s supported Freedom Caucus members in Congress and the group’s offshoot in the State House.

He’s also paid dues to Trump, spending $17,000 at the presidential compound in Florida, Mar-a-Lago.

Schwartz, meanwhile, put money into digital advertising, fundraising consultants and campaign staff payroll.

Congress is in recess through Election Day, freeing Harris to campaign. The candidates have met a few times, but their only head-to-head meeting will come Oct. 13 at a League of Women Voters’ forum in Cambridge.

Schwartz will fill the remaining weeks as he has from the beginning.

“How do we connect with these groups of people who think Democrats are dorks or losers or something worse?” he said. “It’s easy. It’s show up.”