University of Maryland predicts 30% decline in new grad students due to Trump visa restrictions

The University of Maryland, College Park, could face a decline of as much as 30% of its newly admitted graduate students this fall, thanks to a new visa restriction proposed by the Trump administration this summer.

The University of Maryland, Baltimore, is in a similar boat: Officials estimated a 38% enrollment decline of international students last year, and predict that this fall’s numbers, which aren’t yet finalized, will face a sharp decline.

That’s according to two filings submitted by the public universities last week as part of a federal lawsuit. Several higher education organizations and unions sued the Trump administration this month over a policy that would limit the length of international student visas to four years. The policy is set to take effect in mid-September.

While the average undergraduate college student is expected to graduate in four years, international graduate students tend to earn their degrees in five or six years, especially if they are doctoral candidates. That means that most international students will have to apply for extensions, which the universities argued will lead to a loss of students and money.

The Department of Homeland Security, which issued the visa cap in July, has argued that allowing international students to stay in the United States until finishing their degrees, commonly known as “duration of status,” allowed for widespread abuse.

“For nearly half a century, the outdated ‘duration of status’ system has compromised national security and created an environment ripe for immigration fraud,” said DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin in a statement last month. “For decades, foreign students have been admitted into the U.S. indefinitely, allowing thousands to abuse our immigration system by perpetually enrolling in courses to avoid having to leave the U.S.”

Neither UMD nor UMB’s declaration addressed the federal government’s claims of visa fraud, instead citing the economic impacts that international students bring. At UMD, international students contributed $240.4 million to the university and surrounding community in the 2024-25 academic year, according to NAFSA: Association of International Educators. At UMB, the number was nearly $14 million.

Both universities have already faced declining funding as the Trump administration continues to cut, halt and slow the pace of federal research grants.

This year, the state’s flagship university, UMD, laid off 84 employees due to reductions in federal and state funding. Last year, UMB cut about 60 positions — which included 30 layoffs — and reduced salaries for about 1,000 employees due to a nearly $34 million budget reduction.

There are approximately 6,000 international students at UMD and 1,000 international faculty members, according to the university’s declaration signed by Susan-Ellis Dougherty, director of international student and scholar services at College Park.

As of last fall, the state’s flagship university hosted approximately 7,000 international students on F-1 and J-1 visas.

An F-1 visa is the most common type for students and allows international students to study full-time at a university in the United States; it is the most common form of visa for international students.

A J-1 visa is a nonimmigrant visa requiring full-time studies and funding through the U.S. government, the recipient’s home government or university scholarships. Both visas require the recipient to maintain ties and eventually return to their home country after completing their studies.

UMD’s international students are most commonly from India, China, South Korea, Taiwan and Iran, and most study STEM fields and the humanities. Last fall, the university saw a 10% enrollment decline among its graduate programs. The 30% decline it’s anticipating this year would be another blow, which Dougherty said was “very unlikely to be recoverable by the university in future years, even if conditions change.”

At UMB, 32 students admitted for this fall semester have withdrawn due to the new visa restrictions, and 14 have deferred, Amy Ramirez said in a statement on behalf of the University of Maryland, Baltimore, where she is the executive director of the university’s international services office. The university, which educates mostly graduate-level students, currently sponsors 378 current F-1 and J-1 students and scholars, and is expecting to enroll an additional 71 who are due to arrive this fall.

The University of Maryland, Baltimore, according to Ramirez’s declaration, has noticed a decline in international students that is “driven by anxieties about the policy environment” in the United States.

“The future loss of international students and scholars at UMB due to the elimination of duration of status is a concrete, immediate and irreparable harm,” Ramirez wrote.

If the visa restrictions aren’t stopped, she warned, the university may have to restructure programs so that international students can pursue parts of their degrees outside of the United States.

The university could even lose its coveted status as a Carnegie Classified Research 1 institution. To retain R-1 status, universities must confer about 70 Ph.D. degrees per year. Each year, UMB typically confers between 65 and 85 degrees; about 28% of those degrees go to international students, the declaration said.

Leaders at both universities said the visa restrictions would require a complete overhaul of their systems, which would cost tens of thousands of dollars.

The policy “is already causing and will continue to cause massive harms to UMD,” Dougherty wrote in her declaration. “Losing international enrollment would mean failing to recover on sunk investments in international student recruitment, admissions and academic support.”

That lost revenue, Dougherty wrote, is “unrecoverable.”

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