Forecasters warned of an incoming “Super El Niño” this week, but the National Weather Service said its impact on Maryland this summer will be minimal.

El Niño, a climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean that cycles in and out with La Niña, is expected to start transitioning next month and fully emerge in the second half of the summer, said Chris Strong, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. While a strong El Niño can impact weather patterns in the United States and Canada, it’s unlikely to have extreme effects for the summer season in the mid-Atlantic, he said.

If anything, this El Niño is expected to decrease the number of hurricanes and lessen tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean.

“That notches our hurricane chances down slightly here in the Maryland area,” Strong said, though he added that the likelihood of hurricanes is never very high for the region.

While tropical storms and hurricanes bring rain to the state every year, Maryland has had only a handful of major storms over the past several years. Some of the most powerful included Hurricane Irene in 2011 and Superstorm Sandy in 2012.

The continent has not experienced a full El Niño summer since 2015, Strong said. While this El Niño may not be significant for the upcoming summer season in Maryland, in general, it can cause a spike in temperatures, according to The Weather Channel.

When it comes to the winter season, the chances of a big coastal snowstorm during an El Niño can be higher, Strong added, and the climate pattern is expected to stick around through the end of 2026.

This past winter, snow and ice dumped on the East Coast in January, then again in February. The stretch of below-freezing days kept Maryland coated in ice for weeks.